Researchers are also increasingly concerned that extreme heatwaves in Europe are happening faster than models have suggested, suggesting that the climate crisis on the European continent may be even worse than expected. Temperature records are usually broken by fractions of a degree, but the 40.2C recorded at Heathrow is 1.5C higher than the previous record of 38.7C set in 2019 in Cambridge. Around 2,000 heat-related deaths a year have occurred on average in the UK over the past decade, as well as widespread disruption to work, schools and travel. Scientists said the latest record showed that reducing carbon emissions and rapidly upgrading overheated UK homes and buildings was more urgent than ever. Professor Peter Stott, at the Met Office, said: “I find it shocking that we have reached these temperatures today in 2022, breaking the previous record which was only set in 2019.” Primary school students try to be cool. Photo: Twitter His research in 2020 showed there was a chance the UK could reach 40 degrees Celsius due to global warming. “But we calculated it as a relatively low probability – about a one in a hundred chance – although those odds are increasing rapidly all the time with continued warming,” Stott told the Guardian. “Breaking 40 C today is very worrying. We have never seen anything like this in the UK and it could be that the risk of such extreme heat is even greater than our previous calculation showed.’ The risk was certainly increasing rapidly, said Dr Nikos Christidis, who also worked on the 2020 study: “The main message is that this event is becoming more and more common and by the end of the century it will no longer be extreme.” The role of human-caused global warming seems clear, as scientists have calculated that the chances of the UK breaking 40C without it would be less than 0.1%. Dr Friederike Otto at Imperial College London said 40C “would be highly unlikely or virtually impossible without human-induced climate change”. Otto added: “Although still rare, 40C is now a reality of British summers.” “Climate change is driving this heat wave, just like it’s driving every heat wave now,” he said. “Greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels such as coal, natural gas and oil are making heat waves hotter, longer and more frequent.” Professor Hannah Cloke, at the University of Reading, said: “The all-time UK temperature record has not just been broken, it has been obliterated. “Even as a climate scientist who studies these things, this is scary.” “I didn’t expect to see this [40C] in my career,” said Professor Stephen Belcher, at the Met Office. The head of the World Meteorological Organization uses a tie to illustrate global warming – video Climate scientists are concerned that the rise in extreme weather may occur faster than expected. “In Europe, climate models underestimate the change in extreme temperatures compared to observations,” Otto said. “There are still problems with climate models that we don’t understand yet.” Professor Michael Mann, at Pennsylvania State University in the US, said his research suggests climate models have failed to adequately link many extreme summer weather events to climate change. “This is due to processes that are not well captured in models, but take place in the real world – for example, the impact of warming on the behavior of the summer jet stream that gives us many of the extreme heat waves, floods, droughts, wildfires that we see,” he said. “It suggests that the models are, if anything, underestimating the potential for future increases in various types of extreme events.” Tourists in southwestern France on Monday see the plume of dark smoke over the Pilatus dune due to the fire. Photo: Olivier Morin/AFP/Getty Images There were explanations for the extremes of “crazy heat” that occurred after just over 1C of average global warming, said Professor Stefan Rahmstorf, at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. First, the land is warming much faster than the oceans, which cover 70% of the planet and dominate the global average. Subscribe to First Edition, our free daily newsletter – every morning at 7am. BST Second, changing weather patterns could cause more extreme temperatures, he said. “Europe is a heat wave hotspot, showing upward trends that are three to four times faster compared to the rest of the northern midlatitudes. The reason? Changes in the jet stream.” Third, the slowing of a major Atlantic Ocean current tends to increase summer heat and dryness in Europe. While 40 degrees Celsius broke a benchmark in the UK, researchers in continental Europe, which is also in the grip of heatwave, are now looking at 50 degrees Celsius. “In France, one cannot rule out reaching 50 C in the coming decades,” said Professor Robert Vautard, of the Sorbonne University. “For France, Spain and many other countries, the current all-time record is within 5 degrees of 50C, and we know such a jump is possible.” Climate action remained vital, Otto said: “Either [40C in the UK] whether it will become very common or remain relatively rare is in our hands and determined by when and at what global average temperature we reach net zero. Heat waves will continue to worsen until greenhouse gas emissions are stopped.” “It’s also in our hands whether any future heatwaves will continue to be extremely deadly and disruptive,” he said. “We have the service to make us less vulnerable and redesign our cities, homes, schools and hospitals and educate us on how to stay safe.” Drone footage shows Dartford marshes engulfed in wildfires – video
