Wagner, who turns 32 in June, had to tour the open market this time around because the Seahawks released him in the days leading up to the free agency instead of paying him $ 16.6 million in 2022 with a maximum salary of $ 20. , $ 35 million. He learned that NFL teams have concerns about making significant financial commitments to bigger players in non-premium positions, regardless of performance. The 10-year-old veteran had 170 tackles at the top of his career, while winning the eighth consecutive Pro Bowl and second All-Pro team last season.
The Wagner agreement
Wagner signed a five-year, $ 50 million contract worth up to $ 65 million through incentives with the Rams. The future Hall of Famer reportedly turned down a multi-year contract from the Ravens that contained $ 18 million fully guaranteed to stay close to home. Wagner is from Ontario, California, 50 miles east of SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, home to the Rams.
The contract contains $ 20 million in guarantees, of which $ 10 million are fully guaranteed at the time of signing. Wagner’s $ 5 million sign-up bonus, $ 20 million base salary in 2022 and $ 3.5 million in the 2023 league roster are the full guaranteed money. Technically, the bonus roster is guaranteed for skills and injuries when signing and the salary cap guarantee starts on April 8th. The bonus roster has no compensation.
The other $ 10 million in security comes from Wagner’s basic salary of $ 7.5 million in 2023 and $ 2.5 million on the fifth day of the 2024 league bonus roster. Both are guaranteed to be injured in signing and will be fully guaranteed next March, the fifth day of the 2023 championship.
Wagner has a base salary of $ 8.5 million in 2024 and 2026. His base salary for 2025 is $ 8 million. There are also $ 2.5 million bonuses for the fifth day of the league roster in 2025 and 2026.
The deal has $ 3 million in annual incentives and $ 2 million is based on Wagner’s playing time and ram performance. Wagner receives $ 250,000 each for 80% or more of defensive play time, and the Rams improve their league standings by points allowed, total defense or average clean sheets abandoned per game for a total of $ 750,000. Getting at least 90% of the Rams defense snaps is worth $ 500,000. Reaching the threshold of playing time while the Rams advance to the playoffs, you earn an additional $ 750,000.
One million is tied to Wagner’s prices each season. Wagner receives $ 500,000 to qualify for the Pro Bowl and the Rams improve their league standings from the 2021 season on allowable points, total defense or average net loss per game. Instead, it’s $ 1 million for the first All-Pro / All-NFL team from the Associated Press, Pro Football Writers of America or Sporting News.
Wagner has the right to cancel his 2024, 2025 and 2026 contracts. to get away from the last three years.
There have been questions about how the Rams managed to acquire Wagner when news broke that he agreed to the terms last week. The Rams had just over $ 8.7 million of their 2022 salary cap, according to the NFLPA, before signing it. Wagner’s 2022 cap is just $ 2.5 million ($ 1 million in sign-up bonus and $ 1.5 million in basic salary).
The modest $ 5 million signing bonus allows the Rams to pull out of the deal after a season before the fifth day of the 2023 championship with an additional $ 10 million guaranteed, with minimal consequences if Wagner’s skills begin to decline rapidly this season. Wagner’s market capitalization for 2023 is $ 12 million, while the Rams will have a market capitalization of $ 7.5 million with a very short tenure in Los Angeles.
In this case, Wagner would have a one-year deal for $ 10 million, because the March 2023 bonus roster has no compensation. The lack of compensation prevents the Rams from reducing the $ 3.5 million owed to Wagner if they are released with the amount of his new deal with another team. Wagner would reach the “double dive” where he would receive $ 3.5 million from the rams in addition to his full salary from his new contract with another club. With an offset, Wagner would have a $ 6.5 million one-year contract because the Rams could recover the $ 3.5 million owed to him from his next contract. Obviously, none of the incentives would be won in this worst case scenario.
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How profitable are Wagner’s incentives?
Wagner described the motives as “feasible” in a CNBC interview with Jabari Young. The intention is for Wagner to stay on the field every now and then and pair him with the third round of 2021, Ernest Jones, in the home defense.
The incentives required to qualify as Unlikely to Win (NLTBE) so that there are no ceiling charges during the season, given the Rams salary cap restrictions. Any incentive based on what Wagner or the Rams have statistically achieved during the 2021 season is considered likely to be earned and is immediately counted in the salary cap, while anything not achieved in 2021 does not count initially. Wagner’s playing time in 2021 was 89.1%, so this autonomous limit is 90% playing time.
Linking individual and team achievements together also ranks an incentive as NLTBE. The three most easily achievable team categories based on the Rams’ performance in 2021 are those in Wagner’s contract. The Rams ranked 15th, 15th and 17th last season in allowed points, average nets lost per pass and overall defense. Game / team time improvement incentives are based on performance bonuses on extension within linebacker Alec Ogletree he signed with the Rams in 2017, except that his playing time limit was 85% instead of Wagner 80%.
Wagner has a legitimate chance of earning $ 2 million a year in play / Rams performance incentives, provided he stays healthy and continues to be a fan of the line. For the past five seasons (2017-21), Wagner has been on the field for 94.5% of Seattle’s defensive games.
Wagner will need to have a similar career path to the off-ball linebackers introduced to the Hall of Fame in recent years to earn any of the honorary incentives. Ray Lewis was selected in the Pro Bowl during each season for the ages that Wagner has a contract with the Rams (32 to 36). It was a first All-Pro team between the ages of 33 and 34. Brian Urlacher was a Professional Bowler at 32 and 33 years old. Derrick Brooks’s last choice for the first All-Pro team came when he was 32 years old. He went to the Pro Bowl when he was 32, 34 and 35 years old. The most recent entrant, Sam Mills, was named the first All-Pro team under 37 years old.
It is understood that Wagner will gain the right to be excluded from his contract. Considering that Wagner’s age was a concern this year, trying to get more than $ 32.5 million, with an additional $ 9 million incentive over the last three years of this open market contract in two years from now for season 34, 35 and 36 years old, would be a dangerous proposition. If Wagner maintains his level of play, he may be able to use the gap to better structure the last three years where there is additional security and some, if not all, of the incentives are placed at the core value of the deal.
Final thoughts
The value of Wagner’s contract will depend on how he continues to perform. It’s a one-year deal for $ 10 million in the worst case scenario. While Wagner is still with the Rams next March after the fifth day of the 2023 championship, they secure him $ 20 million from the contract. Maintaining Wagner’s current level of play for a long time will allow him to enter the final years of the deal. If so, it is hard to imagine that Wagner would not have a realistic chance of earning at least $ 2 million in incentives each year.
