The growing number of people and the approvals of MPs are not iron guarantees of success, but they certainly do not hurt. And Pierre Poilievre – with his populist calls for frustration with government “guards” and calls for Canada to become “the freest country on earth” – is doing well. Poilievre has posted on Twitter photos of rallies in British Columbia and Ontario attended by hundreds of people. His visits to Calgary on Tuesday and to Edmonton on Thursday are expected to attract more crowds. “They are unprecedented in a leadership [race]Said Melanie Paradis, a veteran of the two previous Conservative leadership tribes who served as deputy campaign director for former leader Erin O’Toole. “It has a fascinating narrative. It’s important to believe that.” Thanks to the thousands of people who waited outside (in the rain) because our venue limited my rally in Langley to 500. You are heroes for freedom. Become a member. So you can vote. To take control of your life: pic.twitter.com/Rb2WL1VYiN – @ PierrePoilievre
The theme of Poilievre’s campaign is freedom. His rallies are aimed at government policies that he says restrict these freedoms – from vaccine orders to carbon taxes to government inflation policy. Poilievre promises that if he becomes prime minister, he will stop all this. His supporters praise Poilievre for being a ruthless conservative. Many like his willingness to harshly criticize and even mock the Liberals. Critics worry it will deepen divisions within the party and the country. Some even went so far as to warn of the Conservative Party “modifying” if Poilievre wins. Some possible truths in this series. However, there is still plenty of time in the leadership campaign for moderate Conservatives to resist the Conservative Party of Canada. https://t.co/dgFJXNCgsM – @ ProsaicPKent
The recent Conservative leadership contests have not been polite to the supposed pioneers. Maxime Bernier was expected to take the lead in 2017, only to be ousted by Andrew Scheer. In 2020, Peter McKay was widely regarded as the pioneer because he had held a number of prominent positions in the cabinet and helped found the modern Conservative Party. He lost to O’Toole in the third ballot. Poilievre is taking advantage of some key differences between this fight and the last two, Paradis said. Andrew Scheer rightly congratulates Maxime Bernier after the election of the new leader of the Federal Conservative Party in May 2017. (Frank Gunn / Canadian Press)
In 2017, Paradis said, the party was out of practice in conducting leadership struggles. He allowed the fight to last for more than a year, he said, which deprived him of a sense of urgency. He also had a field with more than a dozen candidates, which divided the attention and resources of the party activists. In the last race, the leadership candidates had to face pandemic limits on the size of the rallies, which undermined rapprochement efforts. Now, Paradis said, many Canadians are excited to spend time with others. Poilievre also has the upper hand in public approval. More than 50 lawmakers are publicly backing him, compared to just 11 for the Quebec candidate and former prime minister, Jean-Chares, and six for MP Leslie Lewis, who is running for a second term. Liberal leader and new Prime Minister Justin Trinto at the Liberal Party headquarters in Montreal early Tuesday, October 20, 2015, after winning the 42nd general election. (Sean Kilpatrick / Canadian Press)
Former Conservative leader Gary Keller has said he sees a parallel between Puliere’s election performance and that of his main enemy, Justin Trinto. The huge crowds gathered by the incumbent Liberal leader at up and down the 401st highway in Ontario during the 2015 election campaign provided the first hint of the Liberal Party of Canada’s victory over the Conservatives. “[Trudeau] gathered large crowds for Canadian politics in an instant. You can not pretend. “I see a lot of similarities between Pierre’s campaign,” said Kellar, vice president of StrategyCorp and former chief of staff to John Baird, a former Harper’s minister and adviser to Poilievre’s campaign. The idea of ​​similarities between Trudeau and Poilievre may seem strange to some, but both have managed to get people talking and attract supporters who are new to party politics, Kellar said.

Convert turnout into votes

He said the Liberals should remember the Conservatives who laughed at Trinto in 2015 and take Poilievre’s potential seriously as a candidate. One of the key factors in the Conservative leadership race may be whether Poilievre and his team can turn rally attendance into voter turnout. Large crowds of rallies can be dynamic and offer “a bullying factor” for opponents, said Éric Grenier, founder of election analysis website TheWrit.ca – but they are not an end in themselves. “The most important thing is to make sure that these people really register to become members,” he said. “If you are very successful in registering people online, through social media, then the fact that you do not have these large crowds may not be so important.” Applicants have until June 3 to register new members. Making supporters block party subscriptions is one thing. Making them vote is something else. Paradis – who remains neutral in the leadership contest – noted that in recent Conservative leadership races, only about 60 percent of the party’s eligible voters actually ended up voting. Patrick Brown stands on stage with his wife Genevieve Gualtieri and his children Theodore (right) and Savannah as he announces his candidacy to lead the Federal Conservatives at a rally in Brampton, Ont. On Sunday, March 13, 2022. Chris Young / The Canadian Press)
Although no one else in the race has yet shown Poilievre’s ability to attract crowds, there are other ways to manage a leadership career. Former Ontario Progressive Conservative MP and leader Patrick Brown is known for his political determination. Paradis said that while Brown has been relatively silent on social media lately, he works on the phones daily from early in the morning until late at midnight, reaching out to potential supporters and attending many events during the day. “No one really talks about what Patrick is doing and I think he’s fine with that,” he said. Lewis has posted on Twitter photos of herself addressing large crowds while touring the Prairie provinces. She also showed strength by being the first candidate to officially enter the Conservative ballot by submitting the required $ 300,000 in fundraising and signatures from supporters. Lewis and her team are expected to make use of the lessons learned from her previous leadership career, Kellar said.

Charest confronts Poilievre through the media

The candidate who has made the strongest comments about Poilievre to date is Charest, who has not seen many large crowds during the match. Instead, he has taken the battle to Poilievre through the media. Over the weekend, Charest told several interviewees that Poilievre’s support for the self-proclaimed “Freedom Convoy” – which occupied parts of downtown Ottawa in February to demand an end to all restrictions on the pandemic – should be ruled out. Poilievre from the Prime Minister. “The choice is this – whether we do American-style politics, the politics of aggression and division, or we do politics like we do in Canada,” Charest said in French while appearing on Radio Canada’s Tout le Monde en Parle. . “Mr. Poilievre, who by the way is a legislator … advocated an embargo that had a very direct effect on the Canadian economy and which was illegal. Laws are not like a buffet where we choose what we like and what we do not.” Police in riot gear storm a rally in central Ottawa on February 19, 2022. (Evan Mitsui / CBC)
Charest’s supporter and longtime Conservative MP Ed Fast was asked by reporters last week about the crowd that came out to listen to Poilievre’s speech. “I do not think we need to anger Canada. I do not think we should use it. I think what we need right now is someone who can heal the nation,” Fast said. Kellar rejects the suggestion that Poilievre is divisive. While the Ottawa lawmaker has made some sharp attacks on his opponents in the race, Kellar said he sees this as a candidate defending his conservative principles. “[Poilievre] “He is trying to make headlines and he is trying very clearly to clarify who he is here,” he said. With just months to go before the September vote, Paradis warned against drawing conclusions about the momentum. Many of the things that matter in campaigns, from raising money to raising supporters, happen away from the limelight, he said. “No one really sees what’s going on in these games. And that’s why people are surprised every time.”