The European Commission announced on Wednesday that a 15% cut in natural gas consumption – from the average use for the same period over the past five years – should start on August 1 and continue until the end of March next year. “We have to prepare for a possible complete shutdown of Russian gas, and that is a possible scenario. . . I know this is a big ask for the whole EU, but it is necessary to protect us,” said Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The 15% target, which equates to about six weeks of EU gas consumption based on last year’s levels, is voluntary but will become mandatory if there is either a “dramatic reduction” or a complete cutoff of Russian gas, von der von der Leyen said. Leyen, or if requested by at least three Member States. The EU plan comes amid uncertainty over whether Nord Stream 1, a crucial Russian-controlled gas pipeline to Europe that has been shut down for annual maintenance for the past 10 days, will come back online on Thursday and continue to procure. Gascade, the German company that manages the entry points for Nord Stream 1 at Lubmin in the country’s northeast, said on Wednesday it had received “nominations” from Gazprom for Thursday morning, indicating it intended to restore flows. But a Gascade spokesman said volumes could be delayed or reduced for up to two hours before they start flowing. “Things could still change,” he said. Gazprom said that for Nord Stream 1 to function normally it needs a turbine that was serviced in Canada but its return to Russia was blocked due to Western sanctions. Von der Leyen said the turbine was “already in transit, so there is no excuse not to deliver natural gas.” But Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking in Tehran, noted that natural gas would start flowing again at a reduced rate of 30 million cubic meters per day, or less than 20 percent of capacity, if the turbine is not returned. Nord Stream 1 can transport up to 167 million cubic meters per day. Before the maintenance began, Russia had reduced the amount of natural gas it pumped through the pipeline by 60%, citing technical reasons related to the absence of the turbine. Brussels is working to secure non-Russian gas imports to offset further cuts by Moscow, which provided 155 billion cubic meters or about 40% of the EU’s gas in 2021 and has already cut gas deliveries to at least 12 EU countries. Since the start of the year, non-Russian natural gas imports have increased by 35 bcm from countries including the US, the UK, Norway and Azerbaijan, the commission said. Europe has also stepped up its renewable energy deployment, adding an additional 20 gigawatts of capacity — equivalent to 4 bcm of natural gas. To achieve the proposed gas cut, EU capitals are expected to draw up “national contingency plans” by September to show how energy use will be reduced and report on progress every two months. The EU said it aims to “secure supplies to households and key users such as hospitals” and industries critical to cross-border supply chains. The plan also outlined that member states should prioritize a fuel shift to renewables or coal, oil or nuclear if necessary and suggested that EU capitals could impose levels of heating and cooling in public buildings. Several EU countries have reacted angrily to the prospect of mandatory targets set by the Commission. “There are serious issues between member states. Everyone has their own problems and on top of that there is the whole institutional issue: whether the Commission should be able to implement the emergency measures itself,” said an EU diplomat. European energy ministers are due to vote on the proposals at an emergency meeting next week.

Industry players cautiously welcomed the plan to “save gas for a safe winter” but warned that European governments should be careful where they make savings. “Member states need to think carefully about where to cut, because many industries have different situations,” said Axel Eggert, director general of the European Steel Union. “Steel has a very big impact on downstream sectors.” Fertilizers Europe said: “If natural gas availability deteriorates further, Europe risks facing fertilizer shortages that will affect European agriculture in the coming season.” Judith Kirton-Darling, deputy general secretary of IndustriALL, the European trade union, said the committee had not considered what would happen to workers if factories had to close. “No one is talking about what it means for the workers on the construction sites who will have to reduce production or stop under the reduction plan. . . It’s a big gap at a time when workers are extremely concerned about what’s going on,” he said. Additional reporting by David Sheppard and Harry Dempsey in London and Joe Miller in Frankfurt

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