CIA Director William Burns suggested that China would carefully study Russia’s many failures in Ukraine, which could inform “how and when” Beijing might invade Taiwan. “I think our sense is that it probably affects less the question of whether the Chinese leadership could choose some years to use force to control Taiwan, but how and when they would do it,” Burns told the Aspen Security Forum. “If there’s one lesson I think they learned from Putin’s experience in Ukraine, it’s that you don’t achieve quick, decisive victories with overwhelming force.” Burns gave a wide-ranging interview at the forum, touching on topics ranging from Iran’s nuclear capabilities to Russia’s imprisonment of American basketball player Brittney Griner. But he spent most of his time discussing the United States’ two greatest rival nations. He paid particular attention to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including Putin’s mindset and possible factors that contributed to Russia’s many failures to quickly and decisively win the conflict, and what lessons China can learn from the experience as it looks ahead to a possible invasion of Taiwan. CHINESE AMBASSADOR HIGHLIGHTS TAIWAN AS ‘MOST SENSITIVE’ ISSUE, ARGUES WE DO NOT SUPPORT INDEPENDENCE CIA Director William Burns speaks during an event at the Georgia Institute of Technology on Thursday in Atlanta. (AP/Brynn Anderson) “I would not underestimate President Xi’s determination to assert Chinese control over Taiwan,” Burns said. “He is determined to ensure that his military has the ability to take such action if it decides to move in that direction.” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine proved a “strategic failure” for Putin, with Burns revealing he believed the latest US intelligence estimates put about 15,000 Russian troops dead and “perhaps three times that” wounded. It was the first update in months from any intelligence source about possible Russian casualties. SENATE URGES PENTAGON TO CONSIDER DEPLOYMENT OF OBJECTS IN UKRAINE, FIGHTER PILOT STRESSES ‘URGENT NEED’ “The Ukrainians have suffered as well, probably a little less than that, but significant casualties is the big picture,” Burns said, adding that he believes “Russia plans to dig in and continue to pound Ukraine and believes that when winter comes and Fuel costs are so high in Europe that NATO solidarity will weaken.” Putin’s failure to “break up NATO” will prove his biggest mistake, according to Burns. The alliance will add Finland and Sweden, allowing it to “strengthen its deployments.” Instead, Russia has now “regressed into a comfortable mode of warfare” with its shift to the Donbas region, instead relying on “long-range firepower” to create a standoff and compensate for manpower weaknesses. MILITARY COMMANDER This may have led China to take a more “cautious” approach to its military after seeing Putin draw Europeans and Americans closer. “It has upset the Chinese … since they relied on their ability to play some Europeans against the Americans as well,” Burns said. “The Chinese leadership was somewhat unsettled — especially in the early days of Putin’s war in Ukraine — by what they saw. Concerned by the military performance of the Russians early on and the performance of Russian weapons. Concerned by the economic uncertainties that the war rolled out worldwide in one year. “I think Xi Jinping’s main concern is to get through a very important party congress in the fall and have a relatively predictable global economic landscape.” Burns also discussed the threat of global warming and said it is a similar challenge to China’s. “If you assume, as I do, that the People’s Republic of China is the biggest geopolitical challenge facing our country in the 21st century, as I see it, the biggest existential threat in many ways is climate change,” he said. CIA Director William Burns testifies during a House Intelligence Committee hearing on the global threat on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, April 15, 2021. (Al Drago/pool/AFP via Getty Images) The CIA director also reiterated warnings about Iran’s increased speed in acquiring a nuclear device, echoed earlier this month by France’s foreign minister. He noted that under the JCPOA, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, “from which the last administration withdrew several years ago, the release time to produce this amount of fissile material was just over a year.” He said today that “the same breakout time can be measured not in a year plus, but in weeks.” CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP Burns also told the audience at the Aspen Security Forum that he was in Afghanistan the week before the US withdrawal. “I would say, as the president has said publicly, none of us expected that the Afghan government was going to go as quickly as they did or that the Afghan military was going to collapse as quickly as it did. “Having said that, I think the CIA was at least always on the more pessimistic end of the spectrum in terms of pointing out, you know, during the spring and summer, the obvious ways in which the Taliban were moving quickly and how that hollowed out many ways, not only the political leadership, but also the army”. Peter Aitken is a Fox News Digital reporter with a focus on national and global news.
