The team of scientists and epidemiologists advising the Ford government on tackling the pandemic has released new forecasts, suggesting that the number of Ontarians being treated for COVID-19 could exceed 3,000 by May in the most likely scenario.
Scientists say that in a more pessimistic scenario, it is likely that more than 4,000 people will be treated for COVID-19 by May, approaching the peak reached in mid-January when 4,183 people were treated for COVID-19.
The table also predicts that the number of COVID-19 patients receiving ICU beds will increase, but says the final peak is likely to be lower than during the fifth wave of the Omicron-fed pandemic.
The most likely scenario would see about 500 patients in COVID intensive care by May, according to the table.  The worst case scenario, meanwhile, would see more than 600 people in the ICU with COVID-19 by May.  In January, the number of people admitted to the ICU peaked at 626.
“We have a lot of uncertainty here and we are not entirely sure how this will be done,” Dr. Peter Jüni, the panel’s scientific director, told CP24 on Thursday afternoon.  “We are relatively confident that the occupancy of the hospital and the ICU should probably be lower this time than last and that helps.  But there is a caveat.  The warning is that you are again knocking out many healthcare workers (with infection), about the same level as last time during the Omicron wave, and this will increase the pressure on the healthcare system. “
The latest forecasts give a much more worrying picture than the modeling table released last month, which estimated that there would be about 800 COVID patients in hospitals by May and another 300 in the ICU.
This, however, happened before Ontario lifted the mask mandate in most regulations, along with some other public health restrictions.
It also preceded the prevalence of the most contagious BA.2 variant in Ontario, which the scientific table now estimates occurred on March 10th.
In a presentation accompanying the latest figures, the panel said that indoor coverage “will significantly reduce the risk of infection and spread of COVID-19” and noted that “the benefits of community coverage are greater when they are widely adopted. in public places.  schools and workplaces “.
Although the board did not explicitly call for the return of a final mask order, Jüni told CP24 that he would like to see masks required in schools given the increase in transmission.
“I personally would have thought that most of my colleagues or all of my colleagues at the science desk would probably welcome a mask order to school indeed,” Jüni said.  “Why? We are still in a really difficult situation. We probably have about five percent of the population currently infected with COVID and that, of course, is reflected in the schools. You probably would not hurt to go beyond the strong recommendations there. “But I know there are political concerns and that’s beyond my role.”

HOSPITALS INCREASE FROM 23 WEEKS TO WEEKS

Over the past week, the number of people in Ontario hospitals with COVID-19 has risen by 23.6 percent to 1,392, the highest number since mid-February.
The good news is that the growth rate, at least so far, is not as strong as it was in January, when hospitals were forced to cancel optional surgeries and surgeries for about three weeks.
“I am cautiously optimistic that the impact on our health system will be much smaller than the first wave (Omicron), our numbers are much lower than what is currently being formed,” the chief medical officer told CP24 on Thursday afternoon. Health Dr.  Kieran Moore.  , calling the latest forecasts “good news”.
Moore said the slower growth rate of hospitalizations compared to the height of the Omicron wave last winter suggests that Ontario is “building a wall of immunity” through vaccination and recent infections.
He said that while the next two weeks may be difficult for hospitals from an “advantageous staff position”, he believes they will have the resources to manage the increase in COVID-19 patients.
“We are seeing some disconnection.  We do not see a rapid acceleration in the use of intensive care.  “I think it’s because the people of Ontario were so good at showing up and getting vaccinated,” he said.
The scientific table estimates that between 4.5 and six million Ontarians have been infected with COVID-19 since December 1, representing at least a third of the province’s population.
He said the huge number of infections is likely to have a long-term impact on the healthcare system, with conservative estimates suggesting that 10 percent of unvaccinated people infected with the virus eventually develop long-term COVID.
“This is likely to have a significant impact on the economy, the healthcare system and society in the coming years,” the panel warns.