Pierre Poilievre overturns every conventional assumption about Canadian politics. There is growing evidence that the Carleton MP has successfully exploited the anger and frustration of younger suburban voters who believe they have been stripped of their home ownership and job security by “gatekeepers”, as Mr Poilievre calls them. , who acted in their own, selfish, interests. We have seen it in crowded rooms where hundreds, even thousands, have gathered to listen and be photographed with the Conservative leadership candidate. And now we have data to back them up. Poll company Abacus showed 2,000 Canadians the three-minute video with which Mr Poilievre launched his campaign in February. In the video, he describes a dystopian Canada in which a small, privileged elite – “the media, interest groups, corporate giants, government authorities” – manipulate the economy to their advantage while forcing young people into precarious housing and jobs. It promises to “put you in charge of your life again”, shrinking the size of government and its regulatory scope. “Together,” he vows, “we will make Canadians the freest people on Earth.” Half of those who saw the video agreed with his message. A quarter disagreed. a quarter was not sure. “It shows that by two to one,” people are drawn to Mr Poilievre’s message, said David Coletto, Abacus’ chief executive. “It seems to have a pretty big impact.” Mr Coletto noted that 23 per cent of people strongly agreed with the video message and only 13 per cent strongly disagreed. Half of those who saw it said they would be ready to vote Conservative if Mr Poilievre were the leader, compared to the traditional Conservative voter turnout of around 40%. But what really stands out is the distribution of attitudes by age. Six out of 10 people aged 30 to 44 agreed with what Mr Poilievre said, compared with only 45 per cent aged 60 and over. “If he is able to re-align even one part, and does not need to be a large part, of these younger, suburban, now-not-child-anymore-millennials, then it suggests that the Conservatives could be “in a place where they fish in a much bigger lake,” said Mr Coletto. (Abacus surveyed 2,000 Canadians from a representative online panel from April 4 to 9. The equivalent margin of error is 2.1 percent, 19 times 20.) Mr Coletto said there was absolutely no distinction between white and non-white voters in reactions to the video. In contrast to the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement, Poilievre’s supporters appear to be driven by economic, not cultural, insecurity. Mr Poilievre’s main opponent, former Quebec Prime Minister Jean Charest, has argued that no politician who openly identifies, as Mr Poilievre did, with the protesters who illegally occupied central Ottawa in January, can lead a political party. “It excludes you, as far as I am concerned,” he told Evan Solomon on CTV. And he mocked Mr Poilievre’s argument for the ridiculous money that cryptocurrencies could somehow act as a hedge against inflation. “Not only is it wrong, it’s just weird.” From this office, Mr. Charest is right in both cases. But it also expresses the views of the elites themselves who, with their restrictive policies, have created the housing crisis that millennials are suffering. It’s no surprise if they do not trust what we say. There are many obstacles between Mr Poilievre’s ambition to become prime minister and his realization. The Liberals will celebrate his attacks on the Bank of Canada, his support for the Ottawa protesters and more. And we can not know whether the populist message of Poilievre will continue to be attractive 3 years from now, when the next federal elections are scheduled. But we can say this: Pierre Poilievre is creating more excitement than anything we have seen in Canadian politics since Justin Trudeau’s leadership campaign in 2013. And like Mr Trudeau, Mr Poilievre is winning younger voters. I have said that in this race for Conservative leadership, whoever can win the party can not win the country and whoever can win the country can not win the party. I may have been wrong. For subscribers: Receive exclusive political news and analysis by subscribing to Political information.
