The EU is trying to wean itself off Russian gas since the invasion of Ukraine, but is worried about a potential energy crisis this winter. In response to EU support for Kyiv, the Kremlin has already halted or cut gas supplies to a dozen EU member states and is expected to send lower volumes of gas to Germany when the Nord Stream 1 pipeline reopens on Thursday after scheduled maintenance work. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the Kremlin had kept gas stockpiles as low as possible before the invasion and continued to cut supplies. “Russia is blackmailing us, Russia is using energy as a weapon,” he told reporters. “It is a possible scenario that there is a complete cut off of Russian natural gas and that would affect the entire European Union. A gas crisis in the single market, our economic powerhouse, will affect every member state.” Unveiling the Commission’s winter plan on Wednesday, it proposed that from 1 August to 31 March 2023 there should be a voluntary reduction in natural gas use of 15% below the average for that period over the past five years. Under the proposals, if there is a drastic cut or a complete cut in Russian gas, Brussels could declare an EU-wide emergency and introduce legally binding reduction targets. While emergency measures will weigh on industry, EU governments are being asked to step up campaigns encouraging consumers to save energy by turning down thermostats, taking showers and not leaving appliances on standby. Frans Timmermans, the EU’s top official in charge of the European Green Deal, said consumers would remain protected but could also do their bit. “Do we have to have air conditioning at 20 degrees?” asked. “[The temperature] it could be higher, couldn’t it? Of course it can reduce our comfort a little, but it can also reduce our consumption a lot.” The targets must be agreed by EU member states, which are responsible for choosing their own energy mix. The call for mandatory gas conservation could provoke a backlash from countries less exposed to Russian gas, which might accuse other member states of creating a dangerous dependency. A senior EU diplomat has suggested that Germany, which imported 50% of its gas from Russia before the war, could face some tough questions from countries that remember Berlin’s debt curbs during the crisis. of the eurozone. “So we have to pay for the mistakes of the past. Remind me now what you said about the debt in the past,” the diplomat said, outlining how the discussion might go, rather than expressing their country’s position. EU energy ministers are due to discuss the plan next Tuesday, but the Netherlands and Denmark have already signaled they may not be ready to agree to the targets because their parliaments need time to consider the law. Before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia supplied 40% of the EU’s natural gas, but flows are falling sharply. Russia has halted supplies to the Baltic states, Poland, Bulgaria and Finland and reduced flows to Germany, Italy, Austria, Denmark, Slovakia and the Netherlands. From mid-June 2022, during a scheduled maintenance period, flows through Nord Stream 1 were reduced by 60%. Vladimir Putin suggested on Wednesday that the pipeline’s capacity could be reduced. The Russian president claimed there was a problem with the pumping units. Sources in Moscow told Reuters on Tuesday that Nord Stream 1 was expected to resume operations on time, albeit less than its capacity of about 160 million cubic meters per day. Under the worst-case scenario of a sharp cut in Russian supplies during a cold winter, the EU economy could shrink by 1.5%, the Commission estimates. It argues that early action to save energy combined with a milder winter could limit the economic hit to an average drop in GDP of 0.4% in the 27-nation bloc. The International Monetary Fund, however, has made a more bleak forecast, suggesting that the worst-hit countries could see GDP fall by 6%. Subscribe to the Business Today daily email or follow Guardian Business on Twitter @BusinessDesk Under the latest plan, member states are encouraged to consider switching to alternative fuels, even delaying the decision to phase out coal or nuclear power, although clean energy takes priority. Social Democrat MEPs urged the EU to introduce a windfall tax on energy companies. “It would be extremely unfair if we make the most vulnerable among us, including low-income households and the elderly, tighten their belts while energy companies with skyrocketing profits pay little or no share of the burden,” said Mohamed Chahim, Dutch MEP. . The EU has already pledged to end dependence on Russian fossil fuels by 2027 at the latest, with a ban on 90% of Russian oil imports completed by the end of the year. Since the invasion, the EU has increased supplies of LNG and natural gas from countries such as Norway, the US and the UK. He has also been criticized by rights groups for a deal signed this week with Azerbaijan to boost gas supplies through the Southern Gas Corridor, a 2,200-mile (3,500 km) pipeline that links the EU through Turkey, Georgia and of the resource-rich Caspian Sea.
