For weeks now, BA.2 – an even more contagious sub-variant of BA.1, the original, super-transmissible strain of Omicron – has been wreaking havoc across Europe, causing sudden and sudden outbreaks of infection, which eventually appeared to be its huge winter wave. continent. retreating. In England, hospitalizations for COVID-19 were no higher than in the pre-vaccination era. At first, the fear was that BA.2 would trigger a similar increase in the US. But look at the latest data, and it looks like something different could happen instead: a less dangerous and disorganizing type of COVID “hit” that could foretell the next phase of the pandemic – if America is lucky. A COVID-19 test site in Manhattan on March 31. (Spencer Platt / Getty Images) There is no doubt that cases in the US are on the rise or that BA.2 is responsible. Last week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced that the new variant had officially achieved national sovereignty after being found in 55% of COVID-19 samples analyzed between March 20 and 26. As a result, the average number of cases has risen in the past two weeks, particularly in Washington, DC (106%) and New York (58%) – some of the first places BA landed.2. It will not be a surprise if the same pattern takes place this spring in other cities and states. But it would be surprising, at this point, if BA.2 was raised in the US like Omicron BA.1 was raised during the winter – or how BA.2 was recently raised in Europe. There are several reasons for this. The first is that BA.2 is already moving too slowly to cause such a rise in the US. The CDC currently estimates that the latest sub-variation, which has been circulating since December, accounts for at least 72% of new COVID cases nationwide. The day Omicron BA.1 reached 73% nationwide – December 20 – the United States recorded 300,000 cases. The curve was already a vertical line. Today that number is 10 times lower, at around 30,000. Some observers have noted that the US is recording fewer PCR test results now than it was then, largely because home antigen tests – which are not usually reported – are more widely available. “Many people come out positive quickly in mild COVID cases, stay home for a few days, improve and get on with their lives,” Atlantic Derek Thompson said Thursday. “This circle has no contact [with] official data “. Thompson called it “an invisible wave.” The story goes on Medical technologist Lisa Bates at the PCR testing lab at Quest Diagnostics in Indianapolis. (Jon Cherry / Getty Images) He is right that PCR numbers – those listed on COVID monitoring sites – have declined. As of December 20, America had an average of more than 1.7 million of these tests per day. it is now averaging about half (870,000). But just because the full extent of the virus’ s spread is unclear does not mean that its trajectory is unknown. The US has never detected any infection through testing. Instead, officials rely on the percentage of tests that return positively at any given time to assess the transmission rate. As of December 20, this positivity rate was almost 8% nationally. Today, it is less than half that number: 3.5%. Meanwhile in New York – which is widely regarded as the American BA.2 bellwether – the current positivity rate is even lower, at just 3%. Certainly, this is higher than the low of 1.5% in early March. But it bears no resemblance to the astronomical increase from 5% to 22% experienced by the state after the Omicron BA.1 eruption in early December. And here’s the thing: BA.2 is spreading. Causes an increase in cases. It will continue to cause an increase in cases in various areas. But it starts at a much lower level than Omicron BA.1, and it also spreads less quickly and easily – which means, as Yale epidemiologist Nathan Grubaugh recently said, “we are NOT experiencing a sudden increase in cases or a big wave ( at least at today’s rates) “. Why; Because the waves (or surges or collisions) do not rise forever, but peak at a fairly predictable rate. This is happening all over Europe, where BA.2 infections have already decreased. is also what is happening in Canada. People in line at a COVID-19 test center in Toronto. (Geoff Robins / AFP via Getty Images) And in fact, a similar pattern may already be appearing in New York, according to COVID researcher Conor Kelly. Kelly recently estimated that while cases have been rising every week since early February, the rate at which they are rising peaked in late March and has already begun to decline – all while hospitalizations have remained almost constant. This suggests that local cases could soon peak at a fraction of their winter height Omicron, with little of the serious illness and death that accompanied this painful wave. “Things do not get out of hand,” Kelly explained. “No need to panic in the slightest about BA.2, in my opinion.” None that means the pandemic is over. An estimated 7 million Americans are immunocompromised, no children under 5 have been vaccinated, and “long-term COVID” seems to be a real concern. Millions of seniors remain unvaccinated. tens of millions are still without aid. Even if BA.2 does not trigger another huge wave, it still poses the same individual health risk as Omicron BA.1. People should be fully informed about the vaccination and should be careful at gatherings. At the same time, vulnerable people can no longer rely on indoor mask commands to help protect them from exposure. When it comes to being careful, Americans are more or less alone. And the Biden administration’s modest request for a $ 10 billion federal investment in next-generation surveillance, therapies, boosters, and vaccines — all intended to prepare America for new variants and future increases — can never be overstated. This is a mistake that Americans could soon regret. President Biden speaking on 1 April. (Anna Moneymaker / Getty Images) But even when critics mourn the first “So What? “Surge,” as Katherine J. Wu of the Atlantic recently called it – and how “misplaced” the United States is to deal with the next major outbreak – is also worth considering the hard-earned but unquestionable progress a BA could make. 2 non-wave I represent. No one is exactly sure why BA.2 does not look like it will hit the US as hard as, say, UK warming can play a role. last winter, the Alpha variant hit England and then fell in the United States. But the strongest theories have to do with immunity – or, more accurately, the fresh antibodies produced by a recent Omicron BA.1 infection, which for the most part prevent its BA.2 sister sister from immediately re-infecting the same person. . (Vaccines and souvenirs are extremely good at blocking serious illness and death, and also help shield against infection.) At a meeting of the Food and Drug Administration Advisory Board earlier this week, Seattle’s Fred Hutchinson Center’s top virologist Trevor Bedford estimated that a staggering 50% of Americans had been infected with Omicron in the past 10 weeks. Reinforced by delayed vaccination rates and the passage of mitigation measures, these infections have had a horrific, unacceptable cost: another 200,000 Americans have died since the beginning of December. But they also seem to help protect those lucky enough to survive the worst of BA.2 and prevent it from spreading in a way that deprives much of Europe (perhaps because of lower BA.1 exposure and a more abrupt departure from security measures). If that’s the case, America’s BA.2 strike – with people “rapidly positive for mild COVIDs, staying home for a few days, improving and living longer,” as Atlantic Thompson put it – could be another step. to the “next normal” of the pandemic. Free fast home iHealth COVID-19 antigen tests sent by the federal government. (Justin Sullivan / Getty Images) According to Bedford, there are two plausible scenarios for next year: (1) another “Omicron-type outbreak” in which a “new highly divergent virus” avoids existing immunity and overthrows society again, or (2) “evolution within BA.2 “to” further increase intrinsic transmission “, causing” lower attack rates “to a large extent” driven by shift + decrease [immunity] + seasonality. “ He considers the second “more likely” – suggesting that future increases may look more like BA.2 than BA.1. Crossed fingers, then. On Thursday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she was positive about COVID-19 – the last of a growing number of Washington dignitaries, including Attorney General Merrick Garland and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, to catch on. almost certain to be BA.2 after attending Saturday’s Annual Gridiron Dinner or getting in touch with someone who was there. So far Pelozi is “asymptomatic”, according to her spokesperson, and no one involved in the incident has been seriously ill. In recent weeks, many Americans who have been largely cautious for the past two years – such as Pelosi – have removed their masks and gathered indoors. Many of them will meet BA.2 this spring. Gridiron outbursts will not be uncommon. But if current trends do not change dramatically, this is unlikely to herald another frightening rise. Instead, it may signal a more welcome development: an age when “living with the virus” ceases to be a way of denying reality and eventually begins to be realistic.
