Public opinion in both countries on joining the defense alliance has shifted significantly as Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, with a former Finnish prime minister telling CNN that the move “was almost a complete agreement on February 24.” when Russia invaded. “ “If you look at public opinion in Finland and Sweden, and how their views have changed dramatically over the last six weeks, I think this is another example of how this was a strategic failure,” a senior State Department official said this week. Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said on Friday that her country’s parliament would discuss possible NATO membership “in the coming weeks”, adding that she hoped the talks would be completed “before mid-summer”. “I think we will have very careful discussions, but we are also not devoting more time than necessary to this process, because the situation is, of course, very serious,” he said. Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson did not rule out joining SVT in an interview in late March. Sweden is undertaking a security policy analysis that is due to be completed by the end of May and the government is expected to announce its position following this report, a Swedish official told CNN. They said their nation could make its position public sooner, depending on when neighboring Finland does. Finland’s ambassador to the United States, Mikko Hautala, told CNN that the two nations are in close coordination, but that each country will make its own independent decision.
“Think again the basics”
A Finnish official said on Friday that their country would not seek NATO membership out of “despair” for defense of the 30-member alliance. Instead, Moscow’s actions in Ukraine forced Finland to “reconsider the fundamentals.” “And we understand that our relations with this Russia that exists now, can not be the same as those that were due to these Russian actions,” the official said. Alexander Stubb, who served as Prime Minister of Finland from 2014-2015, reiterated this sentiment, telling CNN that there had long been tension in the country between idealism – the desire to be able to work with Russia, with which shares borders – and realism, which required Finland to maintain a strong standing army in the event that Russia ever invaded. This idealism has now largely evaporated in the wake of Russia’s attack. “Finns believe that if Putin can slaughter his sisters, brothers and cousins in Ukraine, as he is doing now, then there is nothing to stop him from doing it in Finland. We just do not want to be alone again.” Stubb said, recalling the Soviet-Finnish Winter War, which lasted from November 1939 to March 1940.
Possibility of Kremlin response
The Kremlin said on Thursday it would have to “rebalance the situation” if Sweden and Finland joined NATO. “We need to make our western side more sophisticated in terms of ensuring our security,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peshkov told Sky News. Finland received two cyber attacks and airspace violation by a Russian state plane on Friday. Both Stump and the Finnish official said Helsinki expected such attacks and downplayed the possibility of a serious response from Moscow if Finland – which shares a 800-mile border with Russia – joined NATO. However, some NATO countries are considering Russia launching an attack before Finland comes under the protection of the alliance, according to a European official. “We will be very much alive in the possibility that Russia may try to do something before joining the alliance,” he said. And the Finnish official acknowledged that “they must be prepared, if our country decides to apply or even if it does not, the situation is not safe, stable … We have a war, we have all kinds of possibilities. ” They said there were messages from other countries that they would offer support if there were security concerns in the interval between the application and the ratification of NATO membership. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said this week that “in the interim period, I am confident we will find ways to address any concerns they may have about the period between a possible application and final ratification.” The Pentagon said Friday that no aid had been requested from either country, but “if a country calls and asks for US support, we will certainly consider it.”
“Member without being a member”
Stoltenberg said Sweden and Finland “can easily join this alliance if they decide to apply”, noting that “they have worked together for many years, we know they meet NATO standards for interoperability, democratic control of the armed forces”. . “ The Finnish official noted that their country is in fact already “a member without being a member”. In particular, NATO and US officials say they would be excited to see Finland and Sweden join the bloc. These countries already have extremely close ties with NATO and that would be a huge advantage, NATO officials told CNN, especially when it comes to exchanging information. While the level of information exchange between Finland, Sweden and NATO has increased dramatically since the start of the war, a NATO official said, it is not at the level it would be if the countries were members of the bloc. A European official noted that Finland and Sweden, if joined, would both be “net contributors” to NATO, given the supply of advanced fighter jets. Finland already has a Boeing F / A-18 and has ordered a 64 Lockheed Martin F-35. Some officials even ironically commented that it would be one of the best things Putin has done to toughen European security. “Just imagine in how many months you have to leave a NATO alliance of 30 to 32 members,” another senior State Department official told reporters after the Foreign Ministry in Brussels. “How can this be anything but a huge strategic blunder for Putin? This has been a topic of discussion and multiple meetings over the past two days.” CNN’s Niamh Kennedy, Chris Liakos, James Frater, Oren Liebermann, Barbara Starr and Michael Conte contributed to this report.
