The assessment, known as the White Paper, will not advocate for or against accession, according to the Finnish Foreign Ministry, but will be used as a starting point for parliamentary debate as the country weighs in on a historic change in its defensive stance. Finland and neighboring Sweden are formally unattached militarily, but Russia’s aggression has led to a dramatic shift in public sentiment – so much so that both countries are now expected to seek membership in the coming months. Their possible accession would reshape European security and provoke anger from the Kremlin. Russian President Vladimir Putin has used NATO expansion as a pretext to invade Ukraine. Now, his brutal war there could bring the military alliance closer and closer to its door. Wednesday’s White Paper marks the start of the process for Finland, where support for NATO membership has soared to 68%, according to a recent poll. “We will have very careful discussions, but we will also not devote more time than necessary to this process, because the situation is of course very serious,” Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin told reporters last week, proposing a decision by the end of the year. June. Sweden’s ruling Social Democrats, who have traditionally opposed NATO membership, have also said they will reconsider their position in the coming months – although the exact timing and level of support remain unclear. The issue of expanding the alliance was discussed last week at a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Brussels. Both NATO and US officials have stressed that it is up to the countries to decide whether they want to join – while signaling that they will be welcomed if they apply. Sweden and Finland already have close ties with the alliance. Both have worked with NATO on military interoperability, trained with allied forces and meet NATO standards for “political, democratic, political control of security institutions and the armed forces,” the Secretary-General said last week. NATO Jens Stoltenberg. “There are no other countries that are closer to NATO,” Stoltenberg, Norway’s former prime minister, told reporters in Brussels. Finland, Sweden join NATO could put Trump’s Republican president in hot seat Washington has also signaled support. In a statement last week, Julian Smith, the US ambassador to NATO, said the United States would “welcome” both countries if they wanted to join the alliance. “We have practiced. we have trained with them. “They bring in very capable soldiers,” he said. “They are some of our closest allies in Europe, so I can not imagine a situation where there would be enormous resistance to this idea.” As Helsinki and Stockholm ponder whether to formalize it, a key question is whether and how they will protect themselves from possible Russian aggression in the period between a show of interest and actual integration, which can take many months. Russia has warned of “serious military-political consequences” and “retaliation” if the two countries join. Although Finnish leaders have largely downplayed the threat, the country is preparing for a range of possible responses from Russia, from serious to mostly symbolic, said Henri Vanhanen, a foreign policy expert and adviser to the National Coalition Party. Φινλανδίας. Vanhanen expects NATO to find ways to “mean that Sweden and Finland are protected” in the meantime, such as making a political commitment to secure security or strengthening military co-operation in some way. “If they signal to us that we are welcome, it is in their interest to do so as smoothly as possible,” he said. “It would be a huge blow to NATO if the open door policy was undermined.” Stoltenberg said last week that he was “confident that the alliance will find ways to address concerns about the period between possible application and ratification”, but declined to give details of what was being discussed. “I do not think it is useful if I start speculating in the audience exactly how we are going to do that,” he said. “But I’m sure that if they apply, we will sit down and find a way to deal with this issue.” Putin’s war brings Finland, Sweden closer to NATO membership Even without NATO protection, Finland and Sweden should theoretically have some collective security measure. Article 42.7 of the Treaty on European Union stipulates that if a member falls victim to an armed attack, other members must assist him. Finnish Marin and Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson wrote a letter last month to European Council President Charles Michel, drawing attention to the “increased role of the EU in solidarity and commitment to the mutual defense clause” in Europe’s new security environment. In a meeting with the Swedish leader last month, German Chancellor Olaf Solz said the country could “rely” on the EU if Russia attacked. Ryan reported from Washington.
