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WE LEAD THE DAY: FINDANES LOOK AT NATO

TO BECOME OR NOT TO BECOME: Finland is preparing for a historic decision, as the country is considering joining NATO. The debate, rekindled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is expected to begin in earnest today when the government presents a white paper on security. Background: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February has re-focused attention on Finland’s security needs. The Scandinavian nation shares a 1,340-kilometer border with Russia. Polls show Finland’s support for NATO membership has doubled to 60 percent in recent weeks, with one on Monday showing that 68 percent of Finns support joining the military alliance, compared to 12 percent against the movement. Significantly, a recent poll found that only six of Finland’s 200 members of parliament opposed NATO membership. Russian context: “Finland’s security environment changed in the early morning hours of February 24 as Russia launched its offensive,” Finance Minister Annika Saarikko said last weekend as she announced a change in her Center Party’s stance on membership. Similarly, the Social Democrats, the party of Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin, are reconsidering their long-standing opposition to NATO membership. Next steps: Today’s security report will not take a position on NATO membership per se – but the Finnish parliament will then discuss the White Paper and give its recommendation to the government and the president. Marin said a decision would be made “before mid-summer”, with the expectation that Finland would formally apply to join NATO next month, ahead of the alliance’s summit in Madrid in late June. ** Message from EFPIA: Medication contains next-generation therapies that can change patients’ lives. In many cases it is a one-time, treatment that replaces a lifetime of medical interventions, but is often accompanied by high initial costs. How can we get our health systems ready to embrace them? ** COMPLETED AGREEMENT: Former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb, a longtime supporter of NATO membership, told Playbook that the application is likely by mid-May. “It’s something that does not make sense – for both NATO and Finland,” he said, noting that Helsinki was already closely aligned with the alliance. (Finland has dozens of military aircraft, a well-resourced army and participates in NATO training programs.) Historical times, historic decisions: Stubb said that history has always influenced Finland’s decision-making process, with the country making great leaps and bounds at important times: 1917. Finland accepts peace in 1944, losing parts of Karelia. “In 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed, we immediately applied for EU membership.” The decision to join NATO will be “part of a continuation, a historic trajectory to the West,” Stump added. RUSSIAN IMPLICATION: Russia has warned Finland not to join NATO and Moscow is expected to launch some form of hybrid offensive against the country in response. As a sign of what could follow, several government ministry websites crashed during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s speech to the Finnish parliament last week, and a Russian plane violated Finnish airspace earlier this month. PUTIN’S LAST CALCULATION: Of course, supporting Finland’s interest in NATO is a rich irony. Through the invasion of Ukraine, Putin helped strengthen the very alliance he wants to undermine. WHAT HAPPENS WITH SWEDEN? Finland is not the only Scandinavian country considering joining NATO. Sweden’s ruling Social Democrats have also launched an internal debate over joining the alliance. Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said last month that she “does not rule out NATO membership in any way.” 30 DONE 32: There are expectations that the two Scandinavians could join the alliance together. Finnish Foreign Minister Peka Haavisto said on Monday at a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg that countries are constantly exchanging information. “Hopefully, if we make similar decisions, we could make them at the same time,” he said. READ THIS NOW – REGISTER WHEN YOU HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY: Elisabeth Braw, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, writes in an opinion article for POLITICO that Stockholm should seize the opportunity to join NATO, as it will never easy.

UKRAINE LAST

PUTIN PAL ARRESTED: Ukrainian forces said last night they had arrested Putin’s close ally, Viktor Medvedev, who was facing charges of treason and escaping house arrest in Ukraine in the early days of the war. In his night speech, Zelenskyy confirmed that Medvedchuk had been arrested, saying he was found trying to disguise himself as a Ukrainian soldier. “If Medvenchuk chose a military uniform for himself, it is subject to the rules of wartime,” Zelensky said, offering to exchange him for Ukrainians in Russian captivity. Putin is known to be a close personal friend of Medvedchuk and godfather of his daughter Daria. Zoya Sheftalovich of the Playbook itself has the details. MORE DENIES: Putin, meanwhile, said so-called peace talks with Ukraine were deadlocked as he sided with Belarussian dictator Alexander Lukashenko during a visit to a Russian space port in the east. The Russian president also falsely claimed that the Bucha massacre was “fake news”, describing the events in the city near Kyiv as a “provocation” against Moscow. (The comments came a day after Austrian Chancellor Carl Nehammer’s trip to Russia to meet with Putin paid off.) COUNTING THE DEAD: The mayor of Bucha said 403 bodies were retrieved in the city after the Russian retreat, with the number still rising. BIDEN SAYS THE WORD: US President Joe Biden has accused Putin of genocide. “Evidence is growing,” Biden told reporters after a speech in Iowa last night in which he used the word “genocide” for the first time to describe Russia’s actions in Ukraine. LAST CHEMICAL WEAPONS: Separately, the United States has said it remains concerned about the possible use of chemical weapons by Russia, although Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said he is unable to confirm reports. However, Blinken said the United States had “credible information” that Russia “could use … chemical agents” in the besieged city of Mariupol. More from our American counterparts in the struggle within the White House on how to react to any confirmed chemical attack. GERMANY’S BUSINESS RELATIONS WITH PUTIN: Germany’s business ties with Russia are back in the spotlight as the EU continues to resist hitting Russia with an oil or gas embargo. In what you should read this morning, POLITICO’s Matthew Karnitschnig and Nette Nöstlinger report how Germany Inc. He played Russian roulette – and lost. Tea with Volodya? “Until shortly before the bombs fell, it was the most coveted ticket on Germany’s corporate calendar: tea with Vladimir Putin,” wrote Matt and Nette at an annual rally in Russia in March. to the German CEO the opportunity. to Speak to the Russian Leader | “The fact that top executives from companies as diverse as Volkswagen and Metro (the cash and transportation giant) were willing to work with Putin underscores an important, if often overlooked, fact about Germany’s complex trade ties with Russia: they include much more than just gas. “ STEINMEASER DID NOT EUROPEAN: Meanwhile, Frank-Walter Steinmeier is not welcome in Kyiv. The German president was planning to visit the Ukrainian capital today – but the Ukrainians told him with certainty that he was not welcome, with Kyiv targeting Steinmeier because of his proximity to Russia, says our colleague Laurenz Gehrke from. COAL WINS: Russia’s war is a short-term victory for coal, says Zosia Wanat of POLITICO. PERFORMANCE TIME: Western governments are beginning to outline ideas – from confiscation of assets to an oil tax – to raise the hundreds of billions of dollars needed to rebuild Ukraine. According to POLITICO’s Paola Tamma, this will not be an easy task. The Center for Economic Policy and Research estimates that reconstruction could cost up to 500 billion euros, but economic forecasts are growing daily. Miserable, prone to looting, frustrated: Ukrainians in the town of Hostomel described their Russian occupiers to POLITICO’s Igor Kossov: “All the units they did not own, they destroyed. “They were demolished,” said Mykhailo, who spent the rest of the occupation in a Russian-occupied apartment complex for more than a month. “In the literal sense.” Victor, a resident of Michael’s building, confirmed: “They were throwing shit at the walls, like children throwing snowballs.”

RULE OF LAW

HUNGARY NO TURN: EU ministers held their first substantive debate on rule of law issues after the European Commission announced last week that it would launch a process that could lead to the withholding of funds from Budapest due to violations of the rules. of the EU. Provocative: European ministers at the General Affairs Council on Tuesday addressed the rule of law in several countries as part of their regular exchange of views. But the real focus was Hungary. Several officials told POLITICO that Budapest, represented by Justice Minister Judit Varga, had set a provocative tone. There is no going back: Hans Dahlgren, Sweden’s Minister for European Affairs, said that during Tuesday’s talks he asked if with his new mandate the Hungarian government was “ready to consider …