Why it matters: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has forced European capitals to reckon with defense spending and security policy. If Finland joins NATO, it will represent the greatest transformation of Europe’s security architecture in years. Game situation: The Finnish government is expected to report to parliament on the changing security environment by the end of this month, launching a debate and finally a recommendation on NATO membership.
60% of Finns now support NATO membership, according to a poll last month – a jump of 34 points since last autumn and the highest level since opinion polls began in 1998. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said this week that he expected “all 30 allies to welcome” both Sweden and Finland into the alliance if the Nordic neighbors decided to apply, indicating that the accession process would move quickly.
What they say: “I think the Finns at the moment are driven by what I call rational fear,” said former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stump in an interview with Axios.
“You have to balance between realism and idealism. Realism is that you have a strong army like us, and idealism is to try to work with a great neighbor,” Stump said. “There has been this good faith effort to forge a functioning relationship with Russia even now that people see that it is impossible – especially [President Vladimir] “Putin – they have changed their minds.”
News guidance: Stubb told Axios he believes the government could decide to apply to NATO as early as May – an astonishing timetable given where public opinion was just a few months ago.
“I’m not saying it will happen on Russian Victory Day (May 9), but it is coming very soon,” Stubb said ironically. Some Finnish lawmakers are pushing for an application ahead of the NATO summit in Madrid in late June.
The big picture: Finland maintains a formidable army of 280,000 troops and 900,000 reservists, and has been deepening its cooperation with NATO for years.
Finland’s integration into NATO would bring significant potential and “strategic depth” to the “highly exposed” Baltic region, says Ian Lesser, executive director of the German Marshall Fund’s Brussels office. “Finland is a hard nut to crack. It would have been and will be in the past, and the Russians of course remember it,” Lesser added, referring to the 1939-1940 Winter War in which Soviet invading troops suffered heavy casualties.
Between the lines: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has underscored for non-aligned countries such as Sweden and Finland that close ties with NATO are far from Article 5 protection, as Kiev’s calls for a no-fly zone remain. unanswered.
“You can not be complacent about NATO support outside of Article Five, no matter how much Europe and the United States may be at risk for your own safety,” Lesser told Axios. “I think the feeling for most Finns is that we never want to be alone again, as we were during World War II,” Stubb added.
What to watch out for: NATO membership carries the risk that Russia will take aggressive action against Finland in the period after the decision is made and before actual membership is granted.
Stobb dismissed the Kremlin’s threats as largely intimidating, but warned that there would be “obviously” hybrid threats, such as cyberattacks or information warfare. However, he insisted: “We have lived next to Russia throughout our existence. We know how to deal with Russia.”
