15:43 BST 15:43
The electoral gap between the two favorites has narrowed dramatically in recent weeks. Exactly one month ago, on March 10, Emmanuel Macron – boosted by the rally around the flag after the Russian invasion of Ukraine – was about 30% and Marin Lepen at about 18%, according to his election tracker. Guardian. On average, the latest polls bring the two to 26% and 23% respectively, a difference that equates to the margin of error of many polling organizations. The far-left gunman Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of La France Insoumise (Unbowed France) also rose over the same period, from 12% to 17%. Meanwhile, Valérie Pécresse of the right-wing Les Républicains party saw her support fall from 12% to 8%, and Eric Zemmour, a television warrior whose extremist views on Islam and immigration have done much to makes Lepen seem reasonable, it has fallen from 12% to 9%. Mathieu Gallard (@mathieugalard) @ Last @IpsosFrance poll for @lemondefr conducted today with 10,425 people registered to vote: Macron 26,5%, = ⚫Le Pen 22,5%, + 1🔴Mélenchon 17,5%, + 1,5Zemmour 9%, – 1🔵Pécresse 8,5%, = Jadot 5%, – 1 pic.twitter .com / yUAL April 8, 2022 The final election poll by Ipsos France, which has the largest sample size (10,425 respondents), so it should in principle be more accurate, showed Macron with 26.5%, Le Pen with 22.5% and Melanson with 17.5%. Updated at 15:44 BST
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Analysts are unanimous in saying that the turnout of a disappointed French electorate will be absolutely crucial for this election and it was 25.48% at noon – down from the previous three presidential elections (28.5% in 2017, 28.3%). % in 2012 and 31.2% in 2007), but until 2002 (21.4%) which, for you with long memories, was the year that Marin Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie, went to the second round. Nicolas Berrod (@nicolasberrod) ❗️ The participation at noon reaches 25.48%. This is lower than in the previous three presidential elections (28.5% in 2017, 28.3% in 2012 and 31.2% in 2007), but more than in 2002 (21.4%). # Presidentielle2022 pic .twitter.com / 2elE3uAszO April 10, 2022 It is difficult to say at this stage who can benefit from this. The low turnout is widely believed to be bad news for the far-right leader, as it could be a sign that her supporters, who often fail to show up on polling day with the numbers predicted by opinion polls, may stay again. Away. On the other hand, some of the details in these lunchtime turnout could ring some alarm bells in the president’s camp: the abstention seems to be greater in the Paris area, which was strongly in favor of Macron in the last 2017 elections. , while turnout in some areas that voted primarily for Le Pen five years ago seems to be significantly higher. The next arrival data is expected at 17:00 local time, so maybe we have a clearer idea. But there will be no certainty about what all this means until the first predictions when the polls close at 20:00 – by the way, these are not exit polls, but estimates based on real votes in a representative constituency across the country . They are usually very accurate. Updated at 15:26 BST
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It is election day in France
John Henley Hello and welcome to the live coverage of the first round of the 2022 French presidential election. It seems to be very narrow, with opinion polls showing the gap between far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally) Marin Le Pen and outgoing center-left President Emanuel Macron has been steadily narrowing in recent weeks. . These two candidates remain favorites to advance to the second round on April 24 to determine who will occupy the Elysian Palace for the next five years, although support for the radical left Jean-Luc Mélenchon has also risen. abstention can play a role with all the pre-election predictions. It was a strange, silent campaign that in many ways never crossed the ground, was first occupied by the pandemic and after the war in Ukraine. But its consequences could well be far-reaching, not only for the future direction of France but also for Europe as a whole. We will bring you news, comments and analysis from me, the head of the Guardian’s office in Paris, Angelique Chrisafis and the correspondent Kim Willher, with usually accurate predictions for the results of the first round to be expected when the polls close at 8 p.m. . local time.
