Twelve candidates are vying for the presidency – including incumbent and beloved President Emanuel Macron, who is seeking a new term in the midst of a far-right dispute. Here’s why the French elections, which are being held in two rounds since Sunday, are important: NATO Russia’s war in Ukraine gave Macron the opportunity to show his influence on the international stage and to fill his credentials in favor of NATO in the pre-election debates. Macron is the only pioneer who supports the alliance, while other candidates have differing views on France’s role within it, including its complete abandonment. Such a development would deal a huge blow to an alliance created to protect its members in the then-emerging Cold War 73 years ago. Despite declaring NATO “brain dead” in 2019, the war in Ukraine prompted Macron to try to infuse the alliance with a renewed sense of purpose. “Macron really wants to build a European pillar of NATO,” said Susi Dennison, Senior Fellow at the European Council on External Relations. “He used it for his diplomacy for the conflict in Ukraine.” On the far left, candidate Jean-Luc Melanson wants to leave NATO permanently, saying he produces nothing but strife and instability. A skeptic of NATO President Melenchon may be particularly concerned about Poland, which has a 1,160-kilometer border with territory now controlled by Russia. Many other candidates want to see either a reduced commitment to the alliance or a complete withdrawal. Although unlikely, France’s withdrawal from NATO would create a deep rift with its allies and alienate the United States. EUROPEAN COOPERATION Observers say Macron’s re-election would mean a real chance for increased co-operation and investment in European security and defense – especially with a new pro-EU German government. Under Macron’s watch, France’s defense spending increased by € 7 billion ($ 7.6 billion) to rise to 2% of Gross Domestic Product – something that leaders, including Putin, are watching closely. In his second term, Macron would almost certainly want to create a common European response in Ukraine and deter Russian threats. RIGHT ALLIANCE? These elections could reshape France’s post-war identity and indicate whether European populism is on the rise or in decline. With populist Victor Orb κέρn winning his fourth consecutive term as prime minister of Hungary a few days ago, the focus is now on France’s resurgent far-right candidates – especially National Rally leader Marin Le Pen, who wants to ban musicians and halal and kosher and drastically reduce migration outside Europe. “If a far-right candidate wins, it could create some kind of alliance or axis in Europe,” said Dennison, of the European Council on External Relations. “Lepen uploaded photos of herself shaking hands with Orban on Twitter in recent days. “It defends a Europe of strong nation-states.” This axis may include Polish President Andrzej Duda, a right-wing populist and ally of Donald Trump. It has worried observers. “More than 30 percent of French voters at the moment say they are going to vote for a far-right candidate. If you include Melenchon as another extreme, anti-systemic candidate – that’s almost half the population. “It’s unprecedented,” Dennison said. The far-right candidate Eric Zemmour has dominated the French airwaves with his controversial views on Islam in France and immigration. However, even the centrist Macron was upset in Muslim countries two years ago when he defended the right to publish cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad. This was done during a tribute to a teacher who was beheaded by a fundamentalist for showing cartoons to his students as part of a free speech lesson. FRIEND OF AMERICA The United States often portrays France as its oldest ally – and from Russian sanctions to climate change and the United Nations, Washington needs a credible partner in Paris. France is a vital transatlantic friend to America, especially as the only permanent member of the UN Security Council in continental Europe with a veto. Despite a bitter US-France dispute last year over a multibillion-dollar deal to supply Australia with submarines – which led to France’s humiliation – President Joe Biden and Macron are now on solid terms. “Macron is obviously the only candidate with a history and credentials in US relations. “Everyone else would start from scratch in an age of great geopolitical uncertainty,” Dennison said. Unlike Macron, an Elysium in the hands of Zemour or Le Pen would probably mean less engagement with issues that the US considers a priority, such as climate change. “They may not prioritize the high financial cost of maintaining the Paris Climate Agreement and the possibility of limiting global warming to 1.5%,” Dennison added. MIGRATION TO EPIRUS In the light of the huge influx of immigrants to Europe last year, France’s place in immigration will continue to strongly influence countries in the region and beyond. This is especially true because of its geographical location as part of the journey of many immigrants to the United Kingdom A migrant boat capsized in the English Channel last November, killing 27 people, leading to a dispute between France and the United Kingdom over who was responsible. Observers believe that France is not very open to immigrants in a European context and see Macron as a relatively hardliner on immigration. However, Le Pen or Zemour are likely to introduce tougher policies than Macron if winners emerge, such as cutting social funding for non-French nationals and limiting the number of asylum seekers. Some candidates have backed a Trump-type border fence.
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