Macron is aiming to become the first French president to be re-elected after Jacques Chirac in 2002.
The centrist Macron faces a flurry of skeptics from across the political spectrum, including Marine Le Pen, the long-time flag bearer of the French far right. TV expert and author Eric Zemmour. and left-hander Jean-Luc Melenchon.
Most analysts said the contest would be a referendum on the rise of the French right, but the war in Ukraine shattered those expectations.
The president proposed a higher diesel tax at the beginning of his term, which sparked the yellow vest movement, one of the longest-running protests in France in decades. His history of the Covid-19 pandemic, the other crucial crisis of his presidency, is unclear. Macron’s signature policy during the Covid era – which required people to show proof of vaccination to get on with their lives – helped boost vaccination rates but sparked a vocal opposition to his presidency.
Macron has done very little campaigning so far and has refused to talk to his opponents. Experts believe that his strategy was to avoid the political mud as much as possible in order to present his image as the most presidential of all the candidates.
Le Pen, for its part, has launched a more mainstream campaign this year compared to its latest bid to win the presidency. While immigration control remains a priority in its campaign, it has softened its anti-Islamic tone and abandoned calls for France to leave the European Union – especially after Brexit – to win out-of-base voters.
Political analysts say Le Pen’s focus on rising cost of living could yield dividends, as rising prices for daily goods and energy are among the constituents’ main concerns.
Many experts also expected that the war would damage the Le Pen and Zemour campaigns, both of which had previously spoken lovingly of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Le Pen dismantled a campaign leaflet with a photo of her visiting the Russian leader, while Zemour backed down after promising that Putin would never invade Ukraine.
Nathalie Loiseau, a member of the European Parliament and Macron’s first European affairs minister, told CNN she believed the French president was motivated by a “sense of duty”.
“He is not doing it for electoral reasons. He is doing it because he thinks he should,” he said.
However, Macron’s decision to abandon the campaign instead of seeking a diplomatic solution to the crisis in Ukraine, whether motivated by politics or principles, could prove to be a responsibility.
“It does not reward. It will not be a big win. He knows it. But he has to do it,” Loiseau said.
