If confirmed by official vote counts expected later Sunday night, pollsters’ initial predictions mean France is preparing for a repeat of the 2017 confrontation that brought Macron to power – but there is no guarantee that this time the result you will be yourself. Macron, a 44-year-old political centrist, won a landslide victory five years ago and became France’s youngest president. But Macron is preparing for a much tougher battle this time against Le Pen, his 53-year-old political enemy who promises seismic change for France – both domestically and internationally – if she becomes the first woman to be elected president of France. Predictions indicate that both Macron and Le Pen were going to improve their performances in the first round of 2017, signaling how the policy of the French leadership is becoming more and more polarized. French far-right leader Marine Le Pen votes in Hénin-Beaumont in northern France on Sunday. It is one of the 12 candidates running for president. (Michel Spingler / The Associated Press)
Predictions showed that Macron had a comfortable lead in the first round on Sunday with a percentage between 27 and 29 percent, ahead of Lepen, which is expected to collect 23 to 24 percent of the vote. Predictions also suggested that hard-core left-wing Jean-Luc Melenchon – one of the left-wing half candidates – would lag behind in the second round, heading for third place. The second round of France’s presidential election on April 24 looks set to face the centrist president seeking to modernize the economy and boost European co-operation against nationalist Le Pen, who has sought to tarnish his party’s racist reputation. Le Pen this time raised the key issue in the minds of many French voters: the cost of living that has skyrocketed amid the unrest of the war in Ukraine and the economic impact of Western sanctions on Russia. Polling station volunteers count ballots in the first round of Sunday’s French presidential election in Strasbourg. (Jean-Francois Badias / The Associated Press)
Pollsters suggest that only a few percentage points could separate known enemies in the second round. This nail-biting scenario creates a second-round campaign that is likely to be much more confrontational and volatile than the first-round, which was largely overshadowed by the war in Ukraine. For two decades, the French president has not won a second term. Just a month ago, Macron seemed almost certain to reverse this trend, rising in opinion polls thanks to strong economic growth, fragmented opposition and his political role in trying to prevent war in eastern Europe. But he paid the price for his late entry into the campaign in which he avoided market walks in rural France in favor of just one big rally outside Paris. A plan to get people to work harder has also not proven to be popular. Macron’s supporters are celebrating at his headquarters on election night in Paris on Sunday. Macron will face the second round against Le Pen on April 24. (Thibault Camus / The Associated Press)
Instead, Le Pen has been touring cities and villages across France for months, focusing on cost-living issues that concern millions and exploiting deep anger at the far-flung political elite. A lead of more than 10 points enjoyed by Macron until mid-March evaporated and voter polls before the first round showed that his margin of victory in a final second round fell within the margin of error. Le Pen, in particular, has touched on the key issue in the minds of many voters: the cost of living that has erupted amid the unrest of the war in Ukraine and the economic impact of Western sanctions on Russia.

Significance beyond the borders of France

With its potential to reshape France’s postwar identity, especially if Le Pen wins, the election is of great international importance. Macron’s victory will be seen as a defeat for European populists. He may also not be applauded in the Kremlin: Macron has been a strong supporter of sanctions on Russia, while Le Pen has been publicly concerned about their impact on French living standards. Voters in Paris line up to vote in the first round of the French presidential election on Sunday. (Lewis Joly / The Associated Press)
After the vote, Le Pen said that “given the situation in the country and in the world”, Sunday’s election result could determine “not only the next five years, but possibly the next 50 years” in France. In the 27-member European Union, only France has a nuclear arsenal and a veto in the United Nations Security Council. As Russian President Vladimir Putin continues his military offensive in Ukraine, French forces are helping to shape the European response. Macron is the only presidential candidate who fully supports NATO’s military alliance. In 2017, Macron defeated Le Pen to become the youngest modern president of France. The victory of the former banker – now 44 years old – was considered a victory against the populist, nationalist policy, after the election of Donald Trump in the White House and the vote of Britain to leave the EU, both in 2016. With the populist Victor Orban winning a fourth consecutive term as prime minister of Hungary a few days ago, the focus is now on France’s rebellious far-right candidates – especially the leader of the National Rally Le Pen, who wants to ban Muslims and Muslims. halal and kosher butchers, and drastically reduce migration from outside Europe. People in Marseille stand in line to vote in the first round of the French presidential election on Sunday. (Daniel Cole / The Associated Press)
If Macron wins, however, it will be considered a victory for the EU, which has shown rare unity lately in responding to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Observers say Macron’s re-election would mean a real chance for increased co-operation and investment in European security and defense – especially with a new pro-EU German government. Russia’s war in Ukraine gave Macron the opportunity to show his influence on the international stage and to fill his credentials in favor of NATO in the pre-election debates.