Macron, a center-right candidate for a second five-year term, faces a serious challenge from far-right leader Marin Le Pen, with both candidates just three percentage points behind on average in the first round of polls. Macron defeated Le Pen by a decisive margin in the last presidential contest, in 2017, but the far-right leader has since tried to soften her image. The order of completion of the first round could depend on voter turnout. As of noon, turnout was 3 percentage points lower than in the same period five years ago.
Macron was well ahead of the 12 official candidates, but the belated rise in support for far-right leader Marine Le Pen has created uncertainty over whether the center-right politician elected France’s youngest president in 2017 could run for a second term. Only three candidates – Macron, Le Pen and far-left politician Jean-Luc Melanson – have a realistic chance of qualifying for the second and decisive round on April 24, when the first two candidates will face each other. The latest polling average, from a poll conducted earlier this weekend, showed that 26% of voters intend to choose Macron in the first round, 23% Lepen and 17% Melanson, according to NSPolls, a platform that collects French election polls. All other candidates participated in single-digit votes. Apart from a big electoral mistake, Macron should be able to advance to the second round. However, he is expected to face a bigger challenge than when he defeated Le Pen by more than 30 percentage points in the second round of the 2017 presidential election. Polls predict he would now win by just a small margin of 4 to 6 percentage points – an indication dissatisfaction with his presidency and concern about the rising cost of living. Explanation: What you need to know about the 2022 French presidential election Macron has taken on a growing international role during the war in Ukraine, serving as interlocutor with Russian President Vladimir Putin and as a leading voice for the European Union and NATO. The Russian invasion has also shaken Europe’s sense of security. And so, as a wartime leader, Macron initially saw a boost in public support. The first round of the presidential elections in France is scheduled for April 10. The Post’s Rick Noack explains the key issues and the top candidates. (Video: Alexa Juliana Ard, Rick Noack, Jayne Orenstein, Jackie Lay, Sarah Hashemi / The Washington Post, Photo: The Washington Post) But this rise has evaporated in the last two weeks – usually the most intense period in France’s relatively short election period. At the same time, support for Lepen quickly rose as she won over voters considering her main far-right rival, Eric Zemour. Six weeks before the election, it looked like he might not even collect enough signatures to get on the ballot. But she campaigned hard, presenting herself as a more modest figure than in the past. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, she has distanced herself from Putin and changed her tough stance on immigration to make an exception for Ukrainian refugees. Macron, as usual, voted on Sunday in the seaside resort town of Le Touquet. Lepen waited in line to vote in Hénin-Beaumont, a far-right stronghold and former coal mining town in an area heavily affected by deindustrialisation and unemployment. Macron held only one major election rally, did not engage in direct discussions with his rivals, and did not deliver any of the major speeches he is known for. While it is not uncommon for incumbent French rulers to avoid the election campaign, this strategy may not have helped his reputation in the eyes of people who see him as an elitist politician without touching on the concerns of everyday people. War in Ukraine boosts Macron, but far right rises ahead of French elections “When you are a candidate who decides to run a short campaign, you have to have a perfect campaign. “You have to be clear, you have to be strong and you have to have a platform,” said Vincent Tiberj, a researcher at Sciences Po Bordeaux. At a polling station in Paray-Vieille-Poste, a suburb south of Paris, criticism that Macron’s campaign was not honest was echoed by Sabrina Famibelle, 38, who voted for Le Pen on Sunday. “Maybe I could have changed my mind… and said in the end, well, why not Emmanuel Macron?” said Famibelle, whose parents are both from abroad. “But from his point of view, we do not deserve his attention or persuasion.” “I did not understand why he refused to talk to the other candidates. “I felt it was not right,” he said. Macron has also alienated left-wing voters who opposed his turn to the right on issues such as national security and who were frustrated with his efforts to fight climate change. Throughout the campaign, Lepen largely avoided emphasizing her most controversial proposals and instead focused on addressing popular concerns about the economy and rising inflation. But in essence, many of Lepen’s positions are as radical as they were five years ago. Last week, he promised to impose fines on Muslims who wear headscarves in public. Zemmour’s campaign has played into the hands of Le Pen. Zemour is a far-right provocateur sometimes compared to former President Donald Trump and has been found guilty several times of inciting racial hatred. “She is so disrespectful,” Tiberj said, adding that Le Pen seemed relatively modest to voters. “But he did not move,” he said. France’s far-right presidential candidate Éric Zemmour has been found guilty of inciting racial hatred An important unknown in Sunday’s vote is the abstention, which could reach a high level, according to analysts, and could complicate forecasts by polling institutes. By noon, only about 25.5% had voted, compared to about 28.5% in the same period five years ago. In the past, high turnout rates were often more pronounced among far-right voters, and Le Pen’s party, the National Rally, fell short of expectations in last year’s regional elections. But the momentum of the French presidential election is often driven by frustrations with the incumbent, and Le Pen has sought to channel public anger at Macron’s policies into a historic share of the far-right vote. Experts also warned that support for the far-left candidate Mélenchon could be higher than indicated in opinion polls, mainly because left-wing voters may spontaneously reject their candidates, many of whom vote low and single-digit. to decide to rally. him. French law bans any campaign after midnight on Friday, and candidates worked until the last minute to encourage their supporters to vote. “On Sunday, France will speak to the world. Vote! “Mélenchon tweeted in minutes. Le Pen, who is running for a third term in the French presidency, wrote that she was “ready to lead the country”. Macron and his allies have tried in recent days to impress their supporters that they should not be overly confident that she will win and that Lepen’s efforts to disguise her radical ideas could succeed at the polls. “Do not believe the commentators or the polls who say it is impossible, unthinkable,” Macron warned last weekend, before his lead in the polls shrank from 6 to 3 percentage points. “Its program will create huge unemployment. “He is lying to people,” Macron told the Parisien newspaper. In the same interview, he accused her of pursuing a “racist manifesto” and said that Le Pen’s plans would essentially mean that France should leave the EU. But Macron struggled to build the same momentum against Le Pen as in 2017. “I’m surprised, because it does not make much sense,” said Emmanuel Rivière, director of international polls at Kantar Public, a data analytics company. A relatively high number of French people, “43 percent, said they trusted Emanuel Macron as president to deal with the main issues,” he said, adding that Le Pen’s previous proximity to Putin should theoretically have damaged his position as well. and to have helped Macron. Riviere cited the weakening of resistance to the idea of Le Pen’s presidency in parts of the electorate and a “very deep-rooted tradition of French voters firing the incumbent whenever we have the chance” as possible reasons for Macron’s surprisingly weak position in polls. At a polling station near the Eiffel Tower on Sunday, 57-year-old Eric Tardy said he disagreed with Macron. He voted in favor of the incumbent because of his “satisfactory record” and said he hoped Macron would continue to pursue the reforms he has begun. Tardy, who leans to the center-right, said Macron had managed to build a “fairly balanced” political platform. But many left-wing voters are frustrated with Macron, and what they see as a turn to the right during his tenure. Polls suggest some left-leaning voters may choose to abstain from the second round, even if it means a far-right victory. The question of how to vote in such a second round scenario seemed big before the first round. In Amiens, the birthplace of Macron, who overwhelmingly voted for him five years ago, left-wing voters split on Saturday. Marie Raul, 61, said she approved of Macron’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, from which France’s economy has emerged less hurt than she initially feared. While he said he would certainly not vote for Macron in the first round, he could support him in the second round, but only “to prevent Lepen”. Her final decision will likely depend on how close the two are in the polls, she said. Left-wing voter Claude Watel, 62, said he had already made his choice: In the event of a Le Pen-Macron run-off, he would vote blank. The “republican …
