So it is rather clear what Vladimir Putin intends to do – to play cat and mouse with Europe. He was implying something when he said ominously this week: “Maybe they’ll turn it off at some point and Nord Stream 1 will stop, and that’s it.” Indeed, Putin has already forced the EU Commission to impose an overall 15 percent cut in natural gas consumption. Once this is in place, it will be divisive by punishing member states that are not dependent on Russian gas as much as those that are. Such tensions, already undermining the EU’s response to the invasion of Ukraine, were exacerbated yesterday by the European Central Bank’s decision to raise interest rates for the first time in eleven years. With inflation soaring, a recession looming and no fiscal union, the question of how to share the financial pain will be at the forefront of minds on the continent. EU officials are scrambling, desperately seeking alternative gas and oil suppliers such as Azerbaijan, but there is no chance that the vast amount of Kremlin-controlled supplies will be replaced anytime soon. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, aware of this, warned that “Russia is blackmailing [the EU].” Her fears are supported by Gazprom’s letters to its customers declaring “force majeure” to justify stopping supplies at any time due to “extraordinary” circumstances beyond its control. We’ve already had a demonstration of the impact the Kremlin’s gas manipulation can have on Western leaders. Nord Stream 1 has been operating below capacity since June, ostensibly due to a turbine being repaired in Canada, but is being held back by sanctions. After EU pressure was brought to bear on Ottawa, the Canadians turned the tide, prompting furious protests from Kyiv. At the heart of this concession was Europe’s largest economy, Germany, whose industrial base is a huge airway. A single plant, chemical giant BASF’s headquarters in Ludwigshafen, consumes half of the gas from all of Denmark. If Putin were to turn off the tap, the consequences for Berlin would be “the most serious economic crisis since the end of World War II,” according to BASF chief Martin Brudermüller. A conservative estimate is that the German economy will shrink by 6%. This is the consequence of Ostpolitik – what others might call opportunistic naivety towards Russia – pursued with myopic zeal by former German chancellors Gerhard Schröder and Angela Merkel. The current chancellor, Olaf Solz, was not much better. He continues to question as Europe prepares to freeze. He has been happy to burn huge amounts of coal to deal with the recent heatwave, but refuses to restart decommissioned nuclear power stations to appease his Green coalition partners. All around him, the dream of a strong and united European Union is crumbling. Italy saw its ruling coalition collapse. Prime Minister Draghi, in confirming his resignation, despaired that some in the Italian establishment were willing to appease Russian demands. With elections coming up, populists like the Brothers of Italy will take advantage of the energy crisis to steer the country down a pro-Russian path. And in France, Emmanuel Macron is as good as a lame duck, having lost his parliamentary majority last month. Nor can this troubled Union rely on support from across the Atlantic, where Joe Biden is sinking to new depths of unpopularity, looks destined for defeat in the November midterms and will want to shore up his own struggling economy as much as possible. If the Russians turn off the taps this winter, the European Union will be a lonelier and more divided force than at any point in its recent history. Far from leading the West’s response to Ukraine, as Brussels initially claimed, the continent is being held to ransom by the Kremlin.
