Germany, which has managed to reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas from 55% to about 35% of demand since the start of the war in Ukraine, is still heavily dependent on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which was shut down for 10 days from July 11. due to scheduled maintenance work. The other two pipelines that normally carry Russian gas to Germany are also not currently serving the country. Gazprom in May halted deliveries through the Yamal pipeline through Belarus and Poland, while Transgas through Ukraine, an extension of Russia’s Soyuz pipeline, prioritizes deliveries to Slovakia and Austria. Map – Russia’s gas supply routes to Europe Sources in Moscow told Reuters news agency on Tuesday that Nord Stream 1 is expected to resume operations on time, albeit less than its capacity of about 160 million cubic meters (mcm) per day. But if Vladimir Putin does not turn the tap back on at the end of the maintenance period on Thursday – as a majority of Germans expect, according to a recent survey – it would put particular pressure on Europe’s biggest economy. “The worst-case scenario is that European countries would need to cut their natural gas consumption by around 15%,” said Simone Tagliapietra, a senior fellow at the Brussels-based economic policy thinktank Bruegel. Germany, however, should find reductions of nearly 30% or 20% if it manages to complete two floating LNG terminals at the North Sea ports of Wilhelmshaven and Brunsbüttel by early next year as planned. “If European states fall into Putin’s trap and we have an energy protectionist scenario until winter, the economic damage will be much worse,” added Taliapietra. A survey by public broadcaster ZDF, published last Friday, shows that the German public still strongly supports its government’s political support for Ukraine: 70% of respondents said they would stand by the country under attack from its eastern neighbor, despite rising energy prices. However, a separate survey by pollster Forsa shows that worries about an energy crisis have risen steadily as the war begins to fade from people’s minds. As of last week, 58% of respondents identified shortages as the most important issue of the day, while 70% named the military conflict in Ukraine. Whether Olaf Solz’s government can counter Russia’s efforts to dampen German morale will also depend on whether it can communicate a clear strategy on how to deal with the looming energy crisis, said Alexander Sandkamp, economist at the Kiel Institute for the World. Economy. “At the moment there is a lot of anxiety among the population of Germany because there are no clear messages about how the rationing would affect household consumers,” said Sandkamp. Under current plans, private households will be protected from gas distribution along with other ‘protected’ customers such as care homes or hospitals. The brunt of the cuts will have to come from German industry, which accounts for about a third of the country’s natural gas use. Subscribe to First Edition, our free daily newsletter – every morning at 7am. BST However, in recent weeks, voices from the chemical and pharmaceutical industries have begun to make public appeals, arguing that restricting their industry could trigger domino effects with more devastating consequences. “Making medical supplies is obviously more necessary than making video game consoles,” Sandkamp said. “But it’s very difficult for the government to set those priorities through gas quotas.” Instead, Sandkamp called for a more transparent mechanism that would allow energy providers to pass on rising gas prices to consumers, forcing them to make voluntary savings. Since many private households in Germany pay their gas bills to property management companies, the price increase is not as visible to consumers as the increase in fuel prices at gas stations. Recent comments by Germany’s energy minister, Robert Habeck, suggest he may have some sympathy for such a view. On a recent trip to Vienna, the Green politician said private households also had to “play their part”, as a long-term shutdown of industrial production would have “huge consequences”. In turn, the German government should probably move to offer further cost of living subsidies. Steffi Lemke, the consumer protection minister, recently proposed a temporary ban on gas and electric companies from cutting off customers who were unable to pay their bills.
