Nearly a dozen European countries have deported hundreds of Russian government officials from embassies and consulates since Russia invaded Ukraine in late February and was most recently charged with war crimes against civilians. A significant number are likely spies posing as diplomats, according to US and European officials. Russia is relying on these agents to gather intelligence within the countries where they serve, so the deportations could dismantle large parts of Moscow’s spy networks and lead to a dramatic reduction in espionage and anti-Western intelligence operations, the former and former officials. “The intelligence war with Russia is in full swing,” said Mark Polymeropoulos, a retired CIA operative who oversaw intelligence operations in Europe and Russia. “This… will prove to be a major blow to Russian intelligence operations in Europe.” Officials said it appeared to be the largest coordinated deportation of diplomats from Europe. “Europe has always been a playground for Russians. They have wreaked havoc with electoral interference and assassinations. “This is a very late step,” said Polymeropoulos. Over the past six weeks, European officials have asked nearly 400 Russian diplomats to step down, according to the Washington Post. In particular, countries that have long tried to avoid confrontation with Moscow are among those declaring Russian diplomats persona non grata. The deportations from the Czech Republic, for example, which in the past have pursued a less aggressive policy toward Moscow, left just six Russian diplomats in Prague, a point the government made on Wednesday. “WE FORCED 100 RUSSIANS ‘DIPLOMATS’ TO LEAVE,” the State Department said in an Instagram post, implying that the Russian officials were in fact intelligence officers. Senior European officials involved in the deportation process said the impact was likely to vary from place to place. Some countries, such as Austria, have stuck with international organizations that are primary targets. Other areas, such as the Baltic, have large numbers of Russians who moved there during the Soviet occupation and can be the target of campaigns of influence. A senior European diplomat called it a “major disruption” to Russia’s work in Europe, potentially permanent. The Kremlin will find it difficult to replenish its intelligence, the diplomat said. “Reassignment and teaching will take time and may not be possible for some time, if ever,” said the diplomat, who, like others, spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive issues. “The retraining, the reorganization, all this is interrupted.” On Monday, at the instigation of scenes of atrocities in the Ukrainian city of Bukha, where civilians were shot after the withdrawal of Russian forces, Germany declared 40 Russian diplomats “undesirable persons”, calling them national security threats that “worked against our freedom.” On the same day, France also announced deportations. In Lithuania and Latvia, Baltic states that regularly push a hard line against the Kremlin, governments ordered the closure of Russian consulates this week and deported a new wave of Russian officials, including the Russian ambassador to Lithuania. “It’s painful for the Russians,” said a senior Baltic diplomat. “We have closed their peripheral network.” Signs of the Boutsa massacre call for war crimes investigations Many countries have followed suit, expelling dozens of Russian personnel from Denmark, Italy, Slovenia, Portugal, Spain and Sweden. “Many countries, such as Belgium and the Czech Republic, have suggested that these moves are coordinated with their close neighbors and / or allies,” said Jeff Rathke, a Johns Hopkins University Europe researcher and former State Department official. “This helps to outline a possible understanding among European countries that they will move to reduce the Russian intelligence service now in response to Moscow’s ruthless and brutal war in Ukraine.” Governments in Europe have been discussing a coordinated deportation for more than a month, but some have moved faster since the Buha massacres, according to officials familiar with the matter. The United States has deported 12 Russians described as “intelligence agents” by Russia’s Permanent Mission to the United Nations on February 28, days after the start of the Russian invasion. This move has been underway for months. It is unclear whether the Biden government intends to expel more Russians. In addition to Russian officials launching espionage operations outside embassies under the guise of diplomatic immunity, Moscow also has spies in Europe who report to the host government. In some cases, Russia’s top spies in Europe have been allowed to remain in place despite deteriorating relations. “Not all the spies have been deported,” said a European official familiar with the matter. “In some cases, we allow the station leader to be content with a smaller group around him. “This can be a valuable channel.” The latest coordinated deportation between the US and its European allies followed the poisoning by Russia of a former British spy and his daughter in the English city of Salisbury in 2018. Dozens of nations expelled more than 150 Russians. This campaign overshadows this effort, which was the largest since the Cold War. “It shows the seriousness of the allied response,” Polymeropoulos said. “There is always the thought that if a country expels some Russians, it will reciprocate your embassy in Moscow. “The fact that so many countries have decided on mass deportations shows how the cost-benefit calculation has changed.” And the results can be long lasting. “One can assume that in most cases the countries will not simply allow themselves to be replaced by those who have been expelled, which could mean a prolonged period of limited access to Russian secret services on EU territory,” Ratke said. Intelligence analysts see Putin as isolated, but could be attacked if he is in the corner In addition to expelling the spies, the absence of Russian political officers reporting back to Moscow could lead to less Russian-made misinformation targeting the citizens of a host country, US and European diplomats have said. Some Czech officials have already noticed fewer malicious Russian information campaigns targeting their domestic policy following the expulsion of some diplomats last year, said a diplomat familiar with the situation. Analysts expect to see this development in other countries as well. “Their deportation will reduce Russia’s ability to spread misinformation in Europe and the United States about what is really happening in Ukraine and its ability to undermine Western efforts to maintain a united front to respond to the war,” she said. Angela Stent, a Russian scholar at Georgetown University and a former senior intelligence official in the George W. Bush administration. The deportations are also likely to damage Russia’s economic ties with Europe, which is already suffering from unprecedented sanctions. “Russian companies are collapsing in Europe – adding another obstacle that makes it an absolute nightmare,” said a European official, who noted that the closure of consulates would damage Russia’s ability to promote transnational operations. But the deportation of so many Russian officials, including some who are genuine diplomats, also carries risks, a European official said. “We are targeting spies and diplomats, which means we will have fewer channels of communication when we want to talk to each other. “It’s a disadvantage, but we think it’s appropriate given the circumstances.” Sam Sharap, a senior political scientist at the Rand Corporation, said the deportations were consistent with wider efforts to cut off all channels with Russia except for some crisis communication lines. “This is an understandable response to the horrors of war, but it could also make diplomacy more difficult if the time for diplomacy finally comes,” he said. And if Russia retaliates, this could make it difficult for European officials to understand what is happening in Moscow. “We have a lot less information coming out of Russia now in general,” Charap said. “The independent media is completely closed. It is still difficult to find Russian state television on the Internet. “Thus, the loss of Western diplomatic eyes and ears hurts even more now than before.” Sammy Westfall contributed to this report.
