The resignation of the former European Central Bank chief last week was rejected by President Sergio Mattarella, who asked him to address parliament in a bid to prevent the third collapse of Italy’s government in three years. His speech in the Senate will be followed by a vote of confidence. Draghi resigned after the Five Star Movement (M5S), a key component of his broad coalition, boycotted a vote on a 26 billion euro cost-of-living package, saying the trust pact on which his government relied had broken down. Unusually for Italian politics, a campaign begging him to stay has swept the country: more than 1,500 mayors from across the political spectrum along with various labor unions have declared their support. Demonstrations in support of Draghi took place in key cities, and a “Draghi, stay” petition gathered more than 100,000 signatures. Moreover, the endorsements of Draghi, dubbed “Super Mario” for his role in rescuing the euro during his tenure as ECB chief, have been hailed by international leaders who see him as fundamental not only to ensuring stability in Italy but also as a partner in facing the challenges of Russia’s war in Ukraine. It is unclear whether the appeals will be enough to deter the 74-year-old, who until late last week was reported to be unwilling to reconsider his decision. In recent days, his coalition parties have been scrambling to find an answer ahead of Wednesday’s vote. While the center-left Democratic party is determined to keep Draghi, Matteo Salvini’s far-right League and former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia have ruled out continuing a Draghi government with M5S, a party they described as “unreliable and incompetent.” Draghi also said he would not govern without the M5S. Meanwhile, the M5S, already weakened by a significant exodus of MPs, was still chipping away at its position as of Tuesday afternoon. Giuseppe Conte, the former prime minister who leads the M5S, again issued an ultimatum to Draghi, arguing he must welcome the party’s priority policies, including a minimum wage and a green home renovation program. Although Draghi could still muster a majority without M5S, he may decide to do away with the regularly bickering coalition parties. The next general election is not scheduled until June 2023, but if Draghi chooses to resign, Mattarella will likely dissolve parliament and call an election at the end of September. “We’re 50-50 at the moment,” said Sofia Ventura, a professor of politics at the University of Bologna. “It depends on what Draghi says – he will give a tough speech, which I don’t think will include appeasement messages to M5S.” The plight of the Italian government comes at an extremely sensitive time, for international and domestic politics. Draghi, who was appointed by Mattarella in February last year to lead the country out of the coronavirus pandemic and revive its economy, has been a staunch ally in supporting aid, including military aid, to Ukraine. Priorities at home include tackling the energy crisis, approving next year’s budget and enacting reforms to get Italy’s next slice of its €200bn share of the EU’s post-pandemic recovery fund . “If, in the end, Draghi has to support a capricious majority, then he’s not going to end up doing what he wants,” Ventura said. “It will be hell for him to maintain good relations in the coming months, but his international position is important, also because the alternative is not very good.” A survey of recent polls found that if early elections were held, then a coalition led by the far-right Brothers of Italy and including the League and Forza Italia could win a majority. Stefano Ceccanti, a member of parliament for the Democratic party, is convinced that the Draghi-led government will continue, with or without M5S. “In times of war, you cannot collapse a government,” he said. “Even without M5S, this would allow us to move forward with a more homogeneous majority.” Subscribe to First Edition, our free daily newsletter – every morning at 7am. BST Italy’s support for arms shipments to Ukraine and its plans to increase military spending have been another point of contention for M5S. Cristian Romaniello, a former M5S MP who is now a member of Europa Verde, an Italian green party founded last year, said increased military spending had resulted in cuts to key sectors such as education and health. “I see people who are afraid of the end of their government experience and an election – if the conditions to govern are still there, then fine, otherwise I’m not afraid of the collapse of the government,” he said.
