“This legislative session is over,” he wrote. “We will fight to give back to the Italian people what the citizens of all other republics have: the freedom to choose who will represent them.” Meloni’s enthusiasm for an early election is not surprising. The Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d’Italia), which has neo-fascist roots, is now the country’s most popular political party. Polls show he is favored by about 22.5 percent of voters, compared to 4.8 percent of the vote in the 2018 general election. Two ideological allies, Matteo Salvini’s League and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, are supported together by an additional 22.8 percent of voters. The center-left Democratic party got just under 22 percent, while the populist Five Star party – which sparked the current crisis by refusing to back Draghi’s government in a crucial vote – got less than 12 percent. Analysts say that means a coalition from the right would almost certainly come to power if Draghi follows through on his threat to resign and an election is called, although rivalries between ideologically aligned but personally antagonistic leaders could complicate the formation of any government. The prime minister is set to make his intentions clear in a speech to parliament on Wednesday, with Italians in the dark over whether he will resign or agree to stay – as many have called for him to. A new hard-right coalition could have major implications for Italy, its strained public finances and Rome’s approach to the war in Ukraine. “Any government in western Europe will have to deal with popular discontent over inflation driven by the prices of energy, raw materials and especially food,” Alessandro Marone, head of the defense program at Italy’s Institute of International Affairs, told the impact of war. “Western Europe is not as resilient as Russia in terms of sacrifices. We have to see what the Brothers of Italy, the League and Forza Italia promise in the campaign to connect with voters.” Rome-born Meloni was a staunch Eurosceptic, openly criticizing “Brussels bureaucrats” and calling for Italy to renegotiate its relationship with the European Commission — though she never went as far as Salvini, who wore a “No Euro” T-shirt ». . But Meloni has recently softened her tone, reflecting Italians’ more positive view of Brussels since the launch of the 750 billion euro recovery fund – of which Rome will be the biggest recipient. “Italians are not as angry with the EU as they were five years ago because the EU is finally doing something for them,” said Daniele Albertazzi, a politics professor at the UK’s University of Surrey. The large sums at stake, he said, would encourage even a hardline government to be “much more moderate and avoid picking huge battles” with Brussels. Although founded only a decade ago, the Brothers of Italy is an offshoot of the Italian Social Movement, the neo-fascist party founded after World War II by associates of Benito Mussolini. For decades, the party’s ties and ideological sympathies with the wartime dictator relegated it to the fringes of Italian politics. This changed in 1994 when Berlusconi invited his successor party, the National Alliance, to join his coalition, leading to a series of administrations in which he participated. Brothers of Italy is the only leading political party that has remained outside Draghi’s national unity government since it was formed in February 2021, arguing that new elections were preferable. However, Meloni has supported Draghi’s tough stance against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, often sounding more supportive of tough measures against Moscow than members of his coalition. Although Liga and Forza Italia are part of Draghi’s government, Berlusconi has long had warm personal ties to Vladimir Putin, while Salvini has also been an admirer of the Russian president. Deepening economic pressures on Italy as the war drags on could precipitate a shift in approach to the conflict in Ukraine, analysts said. “The brothers of Italy took a very clear position to condemn Russia,” Marone said. “But there will be pressure in Italy, France and elsewhere to put the economy first, to lift sanctions [on Russia] and negotiate.” But, he stressed, even a hard-right coalition would not break away from Europe. “It is not going to be a unilateral move by the Italian government. It will be a negotiation within the EU,” he said. Silvio Berlusconi and Giorgia Meloni hold a campaign rally in Rome on March 27, 2008 © Vincenzo Pinto / AFP / Getty Images Meloni, who has been active in right-wing politics since she was a teenager, served as youth minister in Berlusconi’s government from 2008-2011. But Brothers of Italy — known for its anti-immigration stance and ultra-conservative family values ​​— has been in opposition since it was formed in 2012 as part of a party split. Even if Italian voters mandated hard-right parties, analysts warned that this would offer no guarantee of stability given the personal rivalry between Meloni and Salvini. The League won about a third of the popular vote in the 2019 European Parliament elections, but has lost significant support from the Brothers of Italy as Meloni has become the dominant voice of the opposition while appearing more serious than Salvini.

“The big question is whether Salvini is willing to step aside and allow her to become prime minister,” Albertacci said. But, he added, “even if they accept it and a government is formed, they will start fighting after a few months.” Roberto D’Alimonte, a professor of political science at Rome’s Luiss University, predicted that Salvini and Berlusconi would try to block Meloni by arguing that she was unqualified to lead the government. “They will use any argument. . . but the real reason is that they don’t want the Brothers of Italy to grow stronger,” he said.