Comment ROME — Italy’s government dissolved in fury on Wednesday as the major parties passed a vote of confidence and delivered a stinging blow to Prime Minister Mario Draghi, setting the stage for his near-certain resignation. A day that began with Draghi favoring Remain ended with backlash, deepening divisions and the overwhelming odds of the elections in the autumn which will favor a rallying of parties from the centre-right and the far-right. The events bring a disastrous end to a period of relative political unity in Rome and destabilize the European Union’s third-largest economy, of which Draghi was widely seen as a guarantor. For a year and a half, centrist Draghi has led a broad left-to-right government and has parlayed his reputation – built as Europe’s former top central banker – into increasing Italy’s influence in Brussels and powerfully guaranteeing a tough European line against Russia in its war in Ukraine. But the leaders of several coalition parties signaled on Wednesday that they prefer something else. “It’s over,” Draghi ally Matteo Renzi said on the floor of the Senate as three major coalition members, reeling from a day of testy negotiations, announced they would not take part in the confidence vote. Italy in crisis as president rejects Prime Minister Draghi’s offer to resign Based on sheer numbers, Draghi won the vote. But because the Five Star Movement, the League and Front Italia decided not to take part, they effectively torpedoed the unity government. Draghi, surprisingly, chose not to tender his resignation soon after – a move that would have required a visit to the presidential palace. Instead, he will appear before the House of Commons on Thursday morning. Giovanni Orsina, director of the school of government at Luiss-Guido Carli University in Rome, said Draghi’s resignation nevertheless seemed inevitable. “I don’t see any possibility politically to rebuild the situation,” Orsina said. What comes next for Italy, whenever elections are held, could be very different. The next government is likely to assemble a group of nationalist and center-right parties, including some with Eurosceptic and pro-Russian views. In recent days, some political loyalists to Draghi have warned that Italy’s crisis was playing into the hands of Russian President Vladimir Putin. But it is not clear what kind of approach these parties would take once they come to power. Giorgia Meloni, whose nationalist Brothers of Italy is the country’s most popular party and the only opposition, has vocally supported Ukraine against Russia. “We have to think about what [Draghi’s departure] it would mean resistance to Putin,” Enrico Letta, the leader of the center-left Democratic Party, said in a telephone interview. “Draghi was and is a point of reference for all European leaders.” Many political experts expected that Draghi – within a day – would be able to convince the parties to recommit to the coalition. When he tried to resign last week in response to a revolt over a Five Star Movement bill, he was rebuffed by President Sergio Mattarella, who urged him to return to Parliament and test his coalition once more. But by midday Wednesday, rifts were everywhere: between Draghi and the right, between the right and the amorphous Five Star Movement, with the parties blaming each other for the collapse. The parties, in the last months, had more and more oppositions. Italy, under any circumstances, is required to hold a national vote by early next year – giving parties an incentive to diversify in the first place. “The desire to move forward together has gradually faded,” Draghi said in a morning speech to the Senate. In that speech, occasionally raising his voice, Draghi celebrated the government’s work in helping Italy deal with its worst pandemic emergency and, more recently, in trying to obtain alternative energy sources amid the war in Ukraine. But he also issued a stern message, asking the coalition parties to recommit themselves and end any attempt to overturn the government’s agenda. It was his attempt to ensure that if he led his coalition to the finish line, it wouldn’t be a mess. “We need a new trust pact — honest and concrete,” Draghi said. “Are you ready to rebuild this pact?” But he didn’t go out of his way to woo the populist Five Star Movement by citing his pet projects. And he blasted the nationalist League, whose leader, Matteo Salvini, has voiced his support for striking taxi drivers, whose protests Draghi called “violent” and “unauthorized.” It soon became clear that the chances of a deal were faltering. Before the confidence vote, far-right and center-right parties had said in a joint memo that they were fine with Draghi as leader – as long as the Five Star Movement was not part of the government. But Draghi had said he only wanted to preside over the broadest possible coalition – including the Five Star Movement. Because he was unelected – handpicked by Mattarella to lead a unity government during a 2021 government crisis period – he said he needed the widest possible support to continue. In times of crisis, the president of Italy plays a big role. After previous government disasters, Mattarella helped the country put together new coalitions and avoid early elections. If and when Draghi quits, Mattarella could theoretically try again, finding a number who could win a majority and lead Italy to the end of its legislative session. But given the acrimony – and the right wing’s drive to vote early – the chances of such a solution are slim. Even in the event of a resignation, Draghi could have the option to remain as the incumbent in the first vote, which is likely to be held in late September or October. Before the confidence vote, Draghi had received many pleas to stay a little longer – including from more than 2,000 mayors in a petition. Polls have shown that two-thirds of Italians want Draghi to stay. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez wrote an op-ed in Politico saying, “Europe needs leaders like Mario.” “A dark moment for Italy,” tweeted Luigi Di Maio, Italy’s foreign minister. “The results of this tragic choice will go down in history.”
