BRUSSELS — After three months of intense talks, Ukraine and Russia have reached an agreement, along with the United Nations and Turkey, that will allow the two countries to export grain and other food as well as fertilizer to the world. Ukraine and Russia are among the world’s largest exporters of grain and fertilizer, particularly to markets in Africa and the Middle East. When Russia invaded Ukraine, this trade was effectively suspended, mainly due to Russian naval dominance in the Black Sea that effectively blocked Ukrainian ports. The results have been disastrous: historically high grain prices are fueling inflation and food shortages in parts of the world that need it most, including Somalia and its neighbors in the Horn of Africa. There were a lot of moving parts to that deal, and officials didn’t think it was possible until last week, largely because the war continues and trust between the parties is extremely low. Here’s what you need to know about what the problem was, how it could be treated after this discovery, and what the risks are.
Why did Ukrainian grain get stuck inside the country?
After Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, it deployed warships along Ukraine’s Black Sea coast. Ukraine mined these waters to prevent a Russian naval attack. This meant that ports used to export Ukrainian grain were closed to commercial shipping. Russia also looted grain stocks, mined grain fields so they could not be harvested, and even destroyed grain storage facilities. Ukrainian soldiers in a coastal position in Odessa, along the Black Sea coast, in March.Credit…Tyler Hicks/The New York Times
How will the operation work?
Ukrainian captains will direct ships full of grain from the ports of Odessa, Yuzhne and Chornomorsk. Using safe passages that are not mined, they will pilot the ships to Turkish ports, where they will be unloaded and the grain will then be shipped to buyers around the world. Returning ships will be inspected by a joint team of Turkish, UN, Ukrainian and Russian officials to ensure they are empty and not carrying weapons to Ukraine – a key Russian demand. A joint command center staffed by officials from all four parties will be immediately set up in Istanbul to monitor every movement of the convoys. The parties agreed that the ships themselves and port facilities used for their operations would be protected from hostilities. The operation will start in the coming weeks and is expected to quickly start shipping 5 million tons of grain per month. At this rate, and considering that 2.5 million tons of grain are already being transported by land and river to Ukraine’s friendly neighbors, stocks of nearly 20 million tons should be cleared within three to four months. This will free up space in storage facilities for the new harvest, which is already underway in Ukraine.
What are the risks?
No broad truce has been negotiated and peace talks are set to die, so the ships will be sailing through a war zone. Attacks near ships or ports where operations are conducted could tear the deal apart. Another risk would be a breach of trust or disagreement between the various inspectors and the officers of the joint administration. The role of the UN and Turkey is to mediate on the ground in such disputes and to monitor and enforce the agreement. The deal is valid for 120 days and the UN hopes it will be renewed, to smooth out the severely disrupted global food supply. Wheat harvest in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region this week.Credit…Sergey Bobok/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Will this immediately solve world hunger and lower global food prices?
No. World hunger is a persistent problem caused by poor food distribution and price manipulation, which affects some parts of the world year after year. It is often exacerbated by conflict and has been affected by climate change. However, the war in Ukraine, which produces a large share of the world’s wheat, has put a huge strain on grain distribution networks, driving up prices and fueling famine. Officials say this deal has the potential to increase the flow of wheat to Somalia within weeks, preventing a full-blown famine, and should lead to a gradual decline in global grain prices. But given how fragile the deal is because of the ongoing war, grain markets are unlikely to return to normal any time soon.
What is this about Russia?
Russia is a major exporter of grains and fertilizers in its own right, and the agreement is expected to facilitate the sale of these products on the world market. The Kremlin has repeatedly claimed that its reserves cannot be exported due to economic sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union. In fact, the measures do not affect the products in question. In practice, however, private shipping companies, insurance companies, banks and other businesses have been extremely reluctant to help Russia export its grain and fertilizer, either because they fear they might face sanctions or because they are concerned that doing business with Russia may harm them. rumours. To assure those companies that they will not be punished if they help Russian exports, the European Union on Thursday issued a legal clarification of its sanctions saying that banks and other companies involved in the grain trade were not actually banned. The UN said that, armed with similar assurances from the United States, it held talks with the private sector and that trade from Russia – especially the Russian port of Novorossiysk – should be accelerated. — Matina Stevis-Grindnev
