As Prime Minister Jason Kenney heads to a survey of party leadership, nearly 40 percent of adults polled said they would be more likely to vote for the UCP in Kenny’s next election. More than half of those who said they voted for UCP in the 2019 provincial elections said they would be more likely to vote for UCP with a new leader, according to the new survey. “I honestly expected his approval numbers to increase and the race to tighten, but it does not,” said Marc Henry, president of ThinkHQ Public Affairs, which conducted the online survey of 1,135 Alberts. The poll shows that the NDP has a lead, with 41 percent saying it would lean towards the New Democrats if the election were held today, compared to the 30 percent who would be more likely to vote for UCP. Much of this NDP support comes from Calgary and Edmonton residents. Other recent polls have found less support for the two parties. Henry says his company ‘s research shows that over the past four months, Alberta’s appetite to replace Kenny as party leader has been steadily above 60%. “Oil prices are going up a lot and revenue is going up a lot for the province, and employment is improving and the economy is doing better, and there is a battle with Trinto, and you know, these are all forces that usually help a prime minister in Alberta. said Henry. Two-thirds of Albertans polled disapproved of Kenney’s work as party leader. Henry said the research does not give an idea of how UCP members could vote in the leadership review, but it does give an idea of how Alberts might react to the outcome. Asked about his reaction to the inquiry, Harrison Fleming, a spokesman for the Kennedy leadership campaign, said in an email that he was encouraged by the comments he received from base conservatives and Alberts. “The prime minister is looking forward to continuing the good work of Alberta’s economic recovery,” he wrote.
Wildrose is finding support
The results of the survey suggest that Alberta’s Wildrose Independence Party has become a home for conservatives who are frustrated with Kenney. About a tenth of those polled said they intended to vote for Wildrose in the next election. Nearly half of those potential Wildrose voters said they would be more likely to vote for the UCP if Kenney left. There is no margin of error for panel-based online surveys, but the margin of error of a comparable survey from a random sample of respondents would be plus or minus 2.9 percentage points, 19 times 20. The ThinkHQ results reflect some other recent research that has also found that Kenney remains relatively unpopular compared to premieres in other provinces. A survey by the Angus Reid Institute in mid-March found that Kenney’s approval had risen four percentage points to 30%. A Janet Brown poll leaked last month found the prime minister’s approval rating had risen to 36 percent from a low of 19 percent, but 60 percent still disapprove of his performance. Brown’s poll also showed that the UCP was ahead of the NDP by four points in the vote, but that 14 percent of those polled did not vote. A Yorkville Strategies telephone survey of 600 Alberts published last month found that 60 percent of UCP supporters wanted Kenney to remain party leader and 33 percent wanted a new leader – the opposite of the ThinkHQ result. . The Yorkville poll shows that 44 percent of voters would choose a Kenney-led UCP government and 39 percent would vote for Rachel Notley’s NDP.
