In the absence of a dramatic change of direction at the European Central Bank – not likely with a French national in charge, as much as Christine Lagarde despises Le Pen – an investment boycott of French government bond markets seems unlikely. I have an equally opposite view of Le Pen’s impact on both Britain and the EU. Certainly, further EU integration would be off the table in the near future, but then it is. Le Pen simply adds to a trend already established in parts of Eastern Europe. Again, for a large economy to adopt a Victor Orb τύπουn-type approach to the EU, and instead of following the British example of exiting Europe’s single market, it simply ignores its rules and restores the rule of law of the sovereign state, such as Lepen promised, it is undoubtedly a different class of insurgency and could pierce the EU below the water line. As Ian Bond and John Springford argued in an article for the Center for European Reform, Le Pen’s public agenda “France first” would potentially cripple the EU from within, as well as deeply weaken the transatlantic alliance. But how far will it go in practice? If it does what it says, then France will quickly find itself on a trajectory of conflict with the EU. In practice, some way of confusion will be found. Yes, it may seem like a constant confrontation, but when was the EU never in a state of apparent crisis? As for Brexit in Britain, I can not understand why a Le Pen ballot triumph would help the UK a lot. Remember, she is a French nationalist, and although she likes the Brexit case, La France’s perceived interests take precedence over all others. Although Macron is hostile to the Johnson administration, it is easy to see things getting worse under Lepen, who at the most distant point of contention would wrap himself in the flag of Joan of Arc and happily build political capital by clashing with old enemy over the water. If it were to drive away the collapse of the whole EU – which I say I do not think is possible – I doubt it would be useful for the UK. An unstable, politically divided Europe is not in the British interest at all, especially in a time of war in Ukraine, which requires a united European response. Would a shock victory for Le Pen make a big difference? Outside of France, surprisingly little is my bet. This article is an excerpt from the Telegraph Economic Intelligence newsletter. Sign up here for exclusive information from two of the UK’s top financial commentators – Ambrose Evans-Pritchard and Jeremy Warner – delivered directly to your inbox every Tuesday.
