And he made it clear that it could be the most important battle of the war. “Mariupol is the heart of this war today. Beats. we fight. We are strong. And if it stops beating we will be in a weaker position. “They are people who distract a large part of the enemy forces. The stronger our position in Mariupol, the stronger our position in the east of the country. “And if they are stronger, the negotiating table will be closer and we will have advantages in the dialogue with the Russian Federation.” If Mariupol falls and the looming battle for the East goes badly, he warned, Russia will seek to exert its advantage and continue the war. Both sides know the importance of battle. “If and when it falls, then these forces involved there are free to attack north to try to unite with those forces south of Izyum,” a Western official said. “The Ukrainians will now actually face a tweezers move.” The official said Russia would seek to “double or triple” its forces in Donbas before launching the operation and that “it will take some time to increase that number.” The duration of the siege, the scale of the destruction and the bravery of the defenders of Mariupol have made inevitable comparisons with Stalingrad. But Stalingrad famously ended in a seemingly miraculous victory for the defenders. There is a more recent and bitter precedent that many Ukrainians will have in mind. In 2014 and 2015, small numbers of Ukrainian troops fought for months to hold the wreckage of Donetsk airport against impossible odds. They became a symbol of heroism and contempt, but the fight ended in an inevitable and painful defeat. Will Mariupol end in the same way? The siege began on March 3, when Russian spearheads from Crimea and Donbass met and completed the siege of the port city. Although there have been rumors of covert supply routes, aid has been virtually impossible since then. The Russians quickly targeted key utilities, such as water and electricity, to make life impossible for both the defenders and the 400,000 or more civilians trapped in the city. They also destroyed communication infrastructure, making it almost impossible to talk to those trapped inside or document the reality of the battle. For the first three weeks, Mstyslav Chernov and Evgeniy Maloletka, two Associated Press reporters, continued to work under shelling, sending pictures and words when they could still get a small signal. They documented a Russian airstrike that destroyed a maternity ward, killing at least one seriously pregnant woman and her unborn child, but had to leave when they were warned that the Russians were chasing them. Since then, we have had to rely on infrequent updates from the city council and the painful testimonies of citizens who very occasionally reach safety along a “green corridor”.
