The commander of his troops from the control room of the so-called Kavkaz 2020 exercise was Alexander Dvornikov, then a lieutenant general and a rising military star, who, according to Western intelligence, has now been accused by Moscow of restarting the Russian-Ukrainian pre-war a massive attack in the southeastern part of Donbass. Ukrainian officials have warned that Russia wants to destroy Ukrainian forces in Donbass and then try to occupy the capital, Kyiv. Dvornikov developed his strategic skills and modernization approach, which were demonstrated during the Kavkaz 2020 exercises, when he launched Russian military operations with a brutal result in Syria in 2015. “The most important thing about the operation in Ukraine is that during the Kavkaz 2020 exercises, its troops used the latest automated command and control systems that, according to official statements, allowed the joint forces to work effectively.” said Pavel Luzin, a Russia-based military analyst. “Because Russia continues to suffer from inefficient systems of governance, control and communication, it seems that the Russian leadership has placed a bet on Dvornikov to solve the problems of the campaign and win the battle for Donbass,” Luzin added.

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Moscow has not made an official announcement about Dvornikov, who was promoted by President Vladimir Putin to the rank of army general in 2020 and, analysts say, has long been considered a candidate for the next chief of staff of the Russian Armed Forces. . a position held by Valery Gerasimov. But on paper, 60-year-old Dvornikov – who rose through the ranks and, like all senior commanders of his generation – has typically top military training, with experience fighting in Chechnya and Syria – should be able to improve Russia’s military approach. . In the first six weeks of the war in Ukraine, Russia attacked from multiple directions with the commanders of its four military regions acting autonomously. This lack of coordination hampered the effectiveness of their attacks. Placing all Russian forces in Ukraine under their top and longest-serving general, Dvornikov, could help ease the problem, officials and analysts said. As a sign that Russia can already improve coordination between its forces, it has begun systematically bombing Ukrainian infrastructure and military installations. Over the weekend, Russia claimed to have destroyed several Ukrainian air defense systems as part of a push for air supremacy ahead of the crucial battle for Donbass. A Russian patrol on Volnovakha in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic © Alexander Nemenov / AFP / Getty Images Western officials say that despite heavy losses left by more than 30 regular battalion groups unable to fight effectively, Russia could eventually triple the size of its forces in Donbass, although it would take some time to reach that level. . Dvornikov already knows Ukraine. Prior to his new administration, he was the head of Russia’s southern military district, which has been in charge of operations in Donbass since Russia annexed part of its territory eight years ago and has also led Russia’s most successful offensive this year. The appointment of Dvornikov as sole commander “is a reshuffle of the administration. . . “And the Russian military has to have some kind of success,” said Michael Coffman, a Russian military expert at the CNA think tank. “But for Dvornikov to work, he also needs a command structure below him to control and integrate the other military areas.” Such management tests are only the beginning of Dvornikov’s challenges. Since his time in Syria, he has been known in the West for establishing air superiority that allowed Russian and Syrian aircraft to carry out devastating bombings over Idlib and Aleppo, which killed dozens of civilians. Within Russia, however, it is best known for advocating for a change in the culture of top-down military leadership and for integrating dissimilar Syrian fighting forces under a single administration. His task in Ukraine is to do the same, except on a much larger battlefield. “The Russian army is regularly rigid. “You can change the command and strategy of whatever you want, but everything can still be frozen on carbon at the local level,” Coffman said. The military, for example, continues to conduct operations that continue to plague Western defense officials. “We know the Russians had problems with their command and control systems and are now trying to fix them,” said a Western official. “But we still see Russian forces committing some of the regular and dogmatic mistakes we have seen before. . . and the fact that they are not able to adapt is still very, very difficult to understand. “

Meanwhile, fighting along the Donbas frontline and neighboring areas continues daily as Russia prepares for its biggest offensive. When released, there are many aspects of Donbas geography that could play into Dvornikov’s hands. One is that its relatively small area and proximity to Russia could allow Dvornikov to develop the same kind of combined air and ground attacks he used in Syria and demonstrated in the Caucasus exercises. “Ukrainian forces will find it more difficult than before. “But the Russians will not find it easy either,” said another Western defense adviser. “Dvornikov’s additional challenge is to change the way the Russian army fights, to make it more flexible and adaptable. “If he can not do that, he will fail.” Video: The battle of the radio waves of Ukraine