The Ontario COVID-19 Scientific Advisory Board shared its latest disease modeling on Thursday. The panel says it is unclear whether the apparent peak in cases during the sixth wave will be followed by an increase, decrease or continuous plateau after the long weekend. The model suggests that hospitalizations and ICU admissions will continue to rise, but are unlikely to reach levels seen earlier this year during the fifth wave of the pandemic. The team says COVID-19 infections among healthcare workers are as high as they were during the Omicron wave and that combined with an increase in the number of treatments it can affect healthcare capacity. Health Minister Christine Eliot says the latest modeling for hospital and ICU occupancy shows that Ontario can manage the current wave of infections without reintroducing public health measures. This Canadian Press report was first published on April 14, 2022.
title: “Models Show Possible Peak In Ontario Covid Transmission But Future Trends Uncertain " ShowToc: true date: “2022-11-20” author: “Suzanne Vanwagner”
TORONTO – Sewage signals suggest COVID-19 transmission in Ontario may have peaked in Ontario, but provincial pandemic advisers say it is unclear where the trend is heading. The Ontario Scientific Advisory Board for COVID-19 shared its latest modeling for the disease on Thursday, noting that the province is “well on wave six of the pandemic” caused by the infectious subtype BA.2 Omicron, the reduction in immunity and the removal of most common health measures. The panel said it was unclear whether the apparent peak in cases during the sixth wave would be followed by an increase, decrease or continuous plateau after the long weekend. Exact case reports are unknown as the province restricted access to PCR tests in December, but the team of experts has drawn estimates from sewage at the province’s 34 public health facilities. The new model suggests that hospitalizations and admissions to the ICU will continue to increase, with uncertain timing and peak levels. But the team noted that they are unlikely to reach levels observed earlier this year during the fifth wave. Estimates of hospital occupancy range from just over 2,500 inpatients to around 4,000, with a possible peak in mid-May. In terms of completeness in the ICU, the team presented a series of scenarios from about 375 people in the intensive care unit due to the virus or close to 650 people. The high level of ICU screenings is more in line with the comments of Dr. Kieran Moore, the county’s top doctor, who said this week that the county may see up to 600 people in intensive care during the sixth wave. There is also “significant uncertainty” about the deaths and the effects on the health system of the current wave, the team of experts said, especially as healthcare workers are becoming increasingly ill. COVID-19 infections among healthcare workers are as high as they were during the Omicron wave, the team said. This, combined with the growing number of hospitalizations, may affect the health care capacity and the province’s ability to care for patients who do not have COVID-19. The predictions came as Ontario reported 1,392 people in hospital with COVID-19 on Wednesday and 177 in the intensive care unit, compared with 1,332 hospitalizations and 182 people in the ICU the previous day. 4,589 new infections were reported, with limited access to PCR testing. The scientific director of the science panel said that sewage monitoring indicates that the province sees between 100,000 and 120,000 new cases daily. Provincial officials, including the prime minister and Moore, said the province had no plans to reinstate policies such as mandatory masks to stem the rising tide, and the government retained that position on Thursday after modeling was released. A spokeswoman for Health Minister Christine Eliot said forecasts for hospital and ICU occupancy showed that Ontario could manage the current wave of infections without altering its public health response. “This confirms what Dr. Moore confirmed earlier this week – Ontario has the tools and ability to manage this wave of COVID-19 without imposing additional public health measures or restoring a mask mandate,” said Alexandra Hilkene. in a statement. “Ontarians should stay informed about their vaccines, including boosters, and talk to a healthcare provider about available treatment options.” Prime Minister Doug Ford was also asked about modeling on Thursday and said he heard “positive information” about the sewage signal appearing to be peaking, while urging the public to take precautions. “I really believe that everyone should continue to be careful,” he said. Ford also said he would have “no problem” extending other mask orders beyond the end of the month. Masks are still required in long-term care homes, hospitals and public transportation, with those rules expiring on April 27, but Moore has said he plans to extend them in the wake of the latest wave. Ford said he would accept this recommendation if Moore does, because he wants to protect vulnerable people. This Canadian Press report was first published on April 14, 2022. Holly McKenzie-Sutter, The Canadian Press
