This in turn could lead to a new attempt by Russia to occupy the Ukrainian capital, a plan that was abandoned after Russian troops faced fierce resistance. Western officials say the coming weeks of fighting in eastern Ukraine will determine the outcome of the war. A Ukrainian victory in Donbas, which would depend on Western allies quickly supplying more weapons, raises the prospect that they could eventually repel all Russian forces outside the country. On the contrary, a defeat by Ukraine’s most brutal military would leave southern and central Ukraine exposed to rapid Russian occupation and further atrocities against the civilian population. In its daily assessment of war information, the UK Department of Defense said low morale, as well as shortages of supplies and manpower, would prevent a Russian offensive in the east.
A change in Russian tactics could benefit Ukraine
By Dominic Nicholls, Defense and Security Publisher If the struggle for the eastern Donbass region of Ukraine becomes like World War II, it could benefit the Ukrainians. Russian forces relocating from the north and around Kyiv will find a predominantly rural area, ideal for armored warfare and the clever use of extreme force. The Ukrainian forces know the geography and will use it to their advantage. Bridges have been destroyed, channeling any advancing Russian columns on steady routes that favor counterattacks. The time it takes to cover the distances required will require the Russian air force to resume operations in broad daylight – a boon for Ukrainian troops with shoulder-to-shoulder anti-aircraft missiles. New weapons, endowed by the West, will be used to wear down Russia’s offensive formations, long before they enter into a close “battle of contact” with the defenders. Western officials say 29 of Moscow’s original 125th Battalion regiments have become “non-combat effectively” due to fierce Ukrainian resistance. It means that the fight that will come in the east of the country could play the strengths of Ukraine if the Kiev troops plan properly. Ukraine will seek to use the 10 brigades dug deep in the Donbas as an anvil to crush the Russian invaders.
