Then, a deafening bang. In its rush to victory, the advancing team had neglected to check the sandy ground beneath the minefield barrier. Fortunately for them, this was just a general rehearsal for a showdown between Russia and the North Atlantic Alliance. No live explosives were used during the NATO “Rising Griffin” maneuver at the Pabradė military base in western Lithuania. Instead, the referees politely informed the tank commanders that their vehicles would have been dismembered. The Russian enemy was posing as American and Norwegian troops. Western defenders may have scored a tactical victory against an eastern attacker this sunny April morning, but NATO’s security architecture has never seemed more fragile since the spring of 2022, especially when viewed from Lithuania, a country considered for a long time the Achilles heel of the alliance. An independent democracy since 1990, the southernmost of the three Baltic states borders both Russia and Belarus on the east and the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad on the west. On Russian television, experts openly urged the Kremlin to escalate the war in Ukraine by imposing a military corridor along the “Suwalki gap” – Lithuania’s border with Poland – thus cutting off the Baltic from other NATO allies. “Until last November, we had the Russian army far enough away from the NATO border,” said Gabrielius Landsbergis, Lithuania’s foreign minister. “Now military activity is very close. To add to this, Lithuania is located between the territory of Belarus and the territory of Kaliningrad. “Something that puts us in a strategic situation that is, say, interesting.” Since 2016, after the annexation of Crimea by Russia, “enhanced forward” battle groups have been stationed in four NATO member states on the east side: Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Map The war in Ukraine led the alliance to further strengthen its presence in the region, with multinational battalions being sent to Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia. The military presence in Lithuania has increased from about 1,200 to about 1,600 and is equipped with new equipment, such as the German Army’s light and mobile Ozelot anti-aircraft system, which can be used to protect airports from air strikes. But the operation of these military units remains that of tripwire: a reminder to hardliners in the Kremlin that invading what they see as breakaway countries of a former Russian empire would automatically spark a military conflict with other Western European states. But in their current state, there is no doubt that enhanced presence units would sooner or later overtake them. The scenario repeated in the Rising Griffin exercise was a David v Goliath, with the attacking force taking on the role of the giant. The priority of NATO troops in maneuvering, one officer said, was to “delay the enemy”, not to hold the line. As NATO members prepare to meet in Madrid in June, Lithuania, along with neighboring Baltic Estonia, is urging NATO to urgently adjust its stance on the region from deterrence to what it calls “front defense”. “What we are seeing in Russia and Belarus is now a dangerous country with the intention of attacking other sovereign states,” Landsbergis told the Guardian. “It’s a double-edged sword: on the one hand, Russia has proved to Ukraine that it is a declining regional power. On the other hand, it can still do a lot of damage on its way down, as it does not seem to care about its own losses. “We must defend the Baltic states, especially those that are geographically interesting to Russia.” According to the “founding act”, a political agreement signed by NATO and Russia in 1997, there are restrictions on how many Western Allied troops are allowed to be deployed in the Baltic and how close they can be stationed at the border. The enhanced presence in Lithuania, which consists of seven European nations and is led by the German Bundeswehr, must be rotated every six months at significant cost and effort, with hundreds of vehicles having to be transported by road, rail or air before each transfer. While countries such as Germany and the United Kingdom remain committed to the founding act, Lithuania and other countries in the region say the document is no longer viable as a treaty. “We consider it invalid after what Russia has done,” Landsbergis said. “The new reality we have to accept is that the conditions that created the old security environment with Russia no longer exist. We must see it with new eyes. “There must be a permanent military presence with everything needed to defend the skies, defend the seas and defend the land of the Baltic states.” The Estonian prime minister last week called for the surrender of “combat capabilities” to the three Baltic states, with up to 25,000 troops per country. “The question we have to ask ourselves is: what will be the new world security architecture of the world after this war?” said Landsbergis. “Right now, we are just reacting to what is happening in Ukraine. But that must change. “We have to start thinking in strategic terms.”
