The New York State Department of Public Health announced today the rapid rise of two new Omicron variants in the state, called BA.2.12 and BA.2.12.1. They are subcategories of the BA.2 variant and are believed to have a 23% -27% growth advantage over BA.2, which had an estimated 30% growth advantage over the original Omicron. If these numbers are valid, they will make BA.2.12 and BA.2.12.1 the most contagious Covid strains identified to date. This distinction previously concerned the XE variant monitored by the WHO, which is believed to be 10% more contagious than BA.2 “Public health officials have found that these highly contagious new variants are likely to increase the incidence,” according to a New York State press release. “For the month of March, BA.2.12 and BA.2.12.1 increased and collectively accounted for more than 70% of Central New York and more than 20% of neighboring Finger Lakes. Data for April show that levels in Central New York are now above 90%. This increase is paralleled by an increase in the number of cases. At the end of the first week of March, the average 7-day daily number of new cases in the state was well below 2,000. Today, it is over 5,000, according to the New York Times. The total number of new positive cases today, according to state data, was 6,546. The NYT reports that the variants have been identified in more than 40 other countries and in more than 30 states in the United States. According to the NYSDPH, “The Department’s findings are the first reported cases of significant community outbreaks due to new sub-variants in the United States. At present, there are no indications of increased severity of the disease from these sub-variants, although the Department is closely monitoring any changes. “ Some states, such as California, however, do not break Omicron data into underlines, a practice that has made it difficult to track the rise of BA.2 and now makes it difficult to chart BA.2.12 and BA.2.12.1. Nationwide, the BA.2 series – a group that is supposed to include the two new underlines – represent about 86% of all new test samples following week 4/9. However, in the three-state area of ​​New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, BA.2 genealogies make up more than 90% of all recently analyzed specimens. Percentage of new cases that are Omicron (pink) versus other variants (purple) CDC BA.2.12 is said to be of North American and European descent, while BA.2.12.2 is said to be from the United States and Canada, with some speculating that the first case was found in Canada.
A new wave of hospitalizations from BA.2 largely did not materialize, although restrictions were eased. So let’s hope that the trend with the new subcategories, if they exceed BA.2, will be similar. Only time – and good supervision – will show.