The coronavirus found in Ottawa sewage – currently the most accurate way to measure the spread of COVID-19 – continues to rise set more records every day, far exceeding the amount on the January Omicron wave.
Key numbers such as hospitalization, test positivity and cases have also increased.
“It simply came to our notice then [is] “higher than expected,” said Earl Brown, a virologist and professor at the University of Ottawa.
“The pandemic is definitely not over. The hope is that these infections will not be very serious.”
Researchers measuring the average level of the new corona virus in the Ottawa sewage, represented by the strong line, and the rods representing the daily level are both the highest recorded since April 5. (613covid.ca)
Many health officials predicted increased transmission as the restrictions were lifted in March and the Omicron BA.2 minor variant accelerated.
The concern, experts said, would be whether coronavirus outbreaks flooded hospitals. It is not clear if this will happen.
While hospitalization rates remain relatively low, they lag behind infection rates. Data from across the pandemic suggest that hospitalizations in Ottawa are peaking one week after the peak of sewage levels – something that has not happened yet.
“You do not want to get to the point where you have too many assumptions, you can not handle them and you say, ‘Well, we’d like to do something,’” Brown said.
1/2. Covid-19 is rampant in Ottawa and throughout Ontario. Hospital admissions are likely to increase rapidly as transmission spreads to vulnerable people.
Looks like regular vaccine boosters for high-risk people and more protection for vulnerable people in public places and businesses. pic.twitter.com/ZiIiHc5TyS
– @ doug_manuel
It is difficult to translate the sewage level into a case number
Tyson Graber, co-lead researcher on the COVID-19 wastewater project in Ottawa, said the record amount of COVID in wastewater does not necessarily mean that more people are infected. “It is really difficult to equate wastewater data with the number of cases, because this equation is changing or is expected to change between variants,” he said. However, the lack of restrictions on public health combined with rising levels of COVID is a cause for concern, he said. “I think there is a definite concern that it could go higher. There is no longer a lid on the container.” Graber said that even if it is an overestimation, it is better than underestimating the numbers. CLOCKS The relationship between wastewater and hospitals:
Better immunity may mean less serious illness despite sudden rise in sewage, says researcher
Tyson Graber, co-lead researcher on the Ottawa Coronavirus Sewage Monitoring Program, says existing immunity to COVID-19 can attenuate the effects of a sixth wave, keeping hospital rates lower than previous waves. 1:07
Local health leaders are sending a message to residents
There were 23 Ottawa residents in local hospitals for treatment of active COVID-19 in the Ottawa Public Health Report on Thursday, with a rise this week bringing that number back to what it was in mid-February. The number of all COVID-19 patients, regardless of where they live or whether COVID brought them to the hospital, has also increased. This and rising local test-positive rates for those still eligible for PCR are a concern for Ottawa hospital staff and health care providers and neighboring health facilities in eastern Ontario. They issued a joint press release on Thursday, encouraging people to do four things: get vaccinated at every dose they are entitled to, limit close contact, wear a mask indoors and stay home if they are sick. These actions will hopefully help curb the burden on the healthcare system during this wave, which Brown estimates is likely to be at least two weeks away. “Coverage τη reduces transmission,” Brown said. “Maybe you’re not going to have so many parties or big parties. Maybe you’re postponing it a bit.”
