For the past week and a half, the Nord Stream pipeline, which carries natural gas from Russia to Germany, has been shut down for annual maintenance. It was running at only 40% capacity anyway, which the operator, Gazprom, blamed on a faulty turbine. In theory, this should now be in the process of being fixed. After a long diplomatic row over whether pragmatism trumped sanctions, the replacement turbine is being shipped to Russia from Canada, despite protests from the Ukrainian government. But is maintenance really the issue here? It’s really about whether Russia continues to sell energy to Europe at the same time that Europe supports Ukraine’s war effort. And from this perspective, pragmatism works both ways. The Russian president is well aware that if he chooses to stop supplying Europe with natural gas, he can cause a lot of pain. And so, like an anxious householder cautiously turning on his faucet to see if the plumber has indeed fixed the leak, Europe will wait and see what happens. Will Nord Stream come back to life, or will the Russians decide to leave it turned off, weaponizing the energy? Use Chrome browser for more accessible video player 2:28 Fears as Nord Stream closed for repairs Shutting off the natural gas tap would certainly raise prices in Germany and beyond, causing financial damage and worsening already tight household finances. Moreover, Germany, whose natural gas stores are less than two-thirds full, will quickly find itself having to choose between rationing supply to industry, households or just everyone. At one end of the scale, this can mean limits on air conditioning. on the other hand, factories are forced to close their doors. No wonder Germany’s powerful and hugely influential industrial sector is already pushing politicians to roll back rules that give priority to private individuals in times of energy shortages. This specter of social and industrial chaos may sound enticing to many in the Kremlin. But then again, selling fossil fuels, including natural gas, is how Russia makes a lot of money. Even if Europe is scrambling to find new supplies, cutting supply now could just hurt the Russian economy as much as it hurts Europe. Use Chrome browser for more accessible video player 2:56 Ukrainian crisis: Germany caught in NATO crossfire The truth is, no one seems to know what’s going to happen. Germany’s government seems worried. Neighboring Austria, which is even more dependent on Russia for gas supplies, appears to be much more relaxed. The European Commission, meanwhile, issued a particularly disappointing assessment of the prospect of reactivating Nord Stream. “We don’t expect it to come back,” said Budget Commissioner Johannes Hahn. “We are working under the assumption that it will not return to service and, in that case, some additional measures need to be taken.” This is a nod to the Commission’s own set of proposals to reduce energy consumption – limits on heating and cooling and, perhaps, interventions in the commercial energy market. And yet, as the EU says it, so a well-placed diplomat, from a major EU country, tells me that he expects Nord Stream to be reactivated, but at an even lower capacity than it is operating now. “Putin needs a middle ground between maximizing the pain for Europe by pushing the price of natural gas higher, but also getting the cash Russia needs to keep operating,” he tells me. Read more: Russia gears up gas supply to ‘double the chaos’ Germans warned to prepare for possible gas shortage And, of course, this is not just about Nord Stream. There are other pipelines that bring gas from Russia to Europe. Of those, I am told diplomats are particularly concerned about the continuity of supplies from the Druzhba pipeline, the world’s largest, which also supplies Germany, as well as Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Austria and the Czech Republic. “It’s a question of how much pain Putin wants to cause us, compared to the pain he’s willing to absorb himself,” according to one diplomat. Faced with all this uncertainty, Germany, and much of the rest of Europe, is urgently looking for other ways to supply energy. In Germany, which is in the final stages of closing its last nuclear plants, the options are very limited, so inevitably, this rich, sophisticated nation will turn to coal to meet its needs. But even that may not be enough to prevent an energy shortage that could push Europe into discontent and recession.
