By 2050, 35C summers will be common in southern England and 40C days will become much more common. But while many features of this future are cause for concern, there are also glimpses of a better alternative if the political will can be summoned to fight for it. Here are three possible aspects of a 40C future in the UK that reflect the worst of what the country has seen this week – and how things might turn out differently.

Transport: Crumbling infrastructure or electric dreams?

It will take “decades” to update rail infrastructure. Photo: Gareth Fuller/PA Since Monday, airport runways have melted. Two main UK rail lines have been closed and others have been running much slower than normal. The roads have bent, or turned into a “black hood”. Traffic congestion has eased as more people stay at home, but those jobs that require them to travel have had to navigate a creaking and overheated public transport network. By 2050, even if the worst climate change scenarios are avoided, regular long hot summers will put the same networks under acute stress. It will take “decades” to update rail infrastructure designed to operate below 35 degrees Celsius or to replace asphalt on roads that struggle in extreme temperatures, Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said on Tuesday. When multiplied by the pandemic-accelerated telecommuting trend, this suggests the emergence of an even sharper divide between those who can stay at home — and those with practical, mostly low-paying jobs who must cope with crumbling infrastructure. . the weather. This is excerpted from our free daily newsletter, First Edition. Register here. On the other hand, serious investment in this infrastructure – and the vehicles that use it – could help achieve net zero goals while mitigating the effects of inevitable temperature increases. The production of zero-emission road vehicles could add £9.7bn to the economy by 2050 (and the cost of the batteries they need has already fallen by 85% between 2010 and 2018). Safer cycle routes and better cycle parking could reduce demand on trains and buses. Disorganization of “last mile” logistics with cargo bikes and electric trucks will further reduce congestion and environmental impact. All of this would reduce air pollution and the more than 28,000 related deaths each year, as well as the number of fatal traffic accidents. These prospects are not some childish utopia – they are part of the Department of Transport’s plan.

Cities: Urban drought or human-scale shelters?

A New York rooftop covered in reflective paint. Photo: Ken Cavanagh/Alamy In London, the fire service declared a major incident yesterday due to what Mayor Sadiq Khan said was a “huge increase” in fires across the capital. In Leeds, water bottles were handed out and bin collections finished early. In Liverpool, Bristol and Nottingham, pubs which normally enjoy extra business in hot weather have closed due to dangerously hot kitchens. Meanwhile, the researchers found that people of color are four times more likely to live in areas at high risk of heatstroke, in part because a greater proportion live on high ceilings or in areas where trees and green spaces moderate the heat. All of these are symptoms of the heat island effect, which exacerbates heatwaves in urban areas. And the UK, accustomed to temperate conditions and with an aging building stock, will have no easy task reducing or mitigating the problem in the future. By 2050, Manchester’s climate in July will be similar to that of present-day Montevideo, Uruguay, according to a 2019 study – about 6.2 degrees Celsius warmer than it is today. This could mean extreme urban drought, heat exhaustion, an increase in asthma and heart disease. Manchester’s fate will be relatively mild compared to 22% of cities such as Kuala Lumpur and Yangon, which will face extremes beyond anything previously experienced. There are ways to deal with these problems. The Guardian’s architecture critic Oliver Wainwright recently wrote that painting roofs a lighter color can reduce daytime temperatures by up to 3C and cut heat-related deaths by up to a quarter. A bank of trees over concrete can reduce temperatures by 20 degrees Celsius in summer. New bodies of water can have a similar effect, while better building regulations to ensure new homes are properly insulated would make them cooler in summer as well as warmer in winter and reduce their associated emissions. Bob Ward, deputy chairman of the London Climate Change Partnership, last month called for more external shutters that would keep sunlight out in the first place and more public cooling spaces – such as shared air-conditioned buildings or naturally cooler spaces such as churches. A vision for the future has been presented by progressive thinktank Common Wealth’s proposed redevelopment of Glasgow as part of its 2020 blueprint for a British Green New Deal. Take a look at these alternative images of the future of the city: on the one hand, a messy and polluted urban environment where people take second place even to parked cars and there are few green spots or ways to absorb CO2. on the other, a quieter, almost car-free urban space where people have room to move, cleaner air to breathe and trees to shelter beneath.

The heatwave over the pandemic has ‘broken’ the UK’s healthcare system. Photo: Steve Parsons/PA Final estimates of the number of excess deaths in the UK caused by this week’s weather will take time, but experts said yesterday that there may have been as many as 1,000 victims in recent days. Last year, two less severe bouts of extreme heat caused around 1,600 deaths in the UK. Meanwhile, businesses are being cancelled, ambulance calls are coming in and doctors who spoke to the Independent said the heatwave coming on top of existing coronavirus pressures had “broken” the healthcare system. Preparing the NHS for a season of longer periods of such intense heat will be a serious challenge. The number of heat-related deaths in the UK alone is expected to triple by 2050, while the arrival of dengue and Zika or tick-borne diseases, worsening asthma and an increase in nutritional problems will have a disproportionate impact on minority communities and those living in poverty. There will be significantly more pressure on mental health services. Then there is the fact that the NHS itself produces roughly the same emissions as Denmark. The NHS itself can only do so much to control the challenges on its plate in 30 years. The good news is that many of the measures that will limit the worst effects of climate change will also do much to protect it. A report published by the Royal Society last year said “the value of health benefits from climate change mitigation has the potential to offset most of the initial mitigation costs”. Among many other things, it found that replacing half of the UK’s meat and dairy consumption with fruit, vegetables and grains would reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 19% – but also prevent 37,000 deaths a year.