Why it matters: Kyiv and its Western backers hope an influx of NATO-caliber weapons will allow Ukraine to reverse Russia’s gains. But if Russia follows the “book” published by the White House this week, Moscow will claim that the fighting is now taking place on Russian soil. Leading the story: White House spokesman John Kirby said on Tuesday that the US has information indicating that the Kremlin is “considering detailed plans” to annex four oblasts or regions of Ukraine: Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk and Luhansk.
A senior German official tells Axios that they share the US assessment of the planned annexations.
From Vladimir Putin’s perspective, annexing the four regions dramatically raises the stakes of their defense — and potentially the tools he’s willing to use to do so.
Western countries would never recognize such annexations, but the move could upset the risk-reward calculus of providing arms and political support. For Ukraine, the threat is more existential: partition, long-term destabilization, and the collapse of any possible peace deal. It also increases the incentive to strike back now, before Russia can implement any annexation plans.
The big picture: The four regions are contiguous and would connect Crimea, which Moscow annexed in 2014, with Russia.
Russian forces captured Kherson and Zaporizhia in southern Ukraine in the first days of the war. Then, after failing to capture Kyiv, they launched a massive offensive in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine. Putin claimed full control of Luhansk earlier this month and is now turning his attention to Donetsk. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov acknowledged Wednesday that Russia’s military ambitions extend beyond the Donbass to Kherson, Zaporizhia and “a number of other territories” — including territories potentially held by Ukraine in the West.
Zoom In: In the Russian Peninsula, Russia installed a puppet government, restricted the Internet, approved the use of the ruble, and began issuing Russian passports.
Kirby said the US believes the next steps in the “annexation manual” will include a fraudulent referendum on Russian accession, perhaps in mid-September to align with regional elections in Russia. Kirby promised that the US and its allies would respond with strong sanctions, adding: “We will remind Mr Putin that over time he may prove unable to hold this ground.”
White Hose spokesman John Kirby describes the “attachment book”. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images Such a bold move would actually be a “logical next step” for Putin, argues Alexander Gabuev, a Russia expert at the Carnegie Endowment.
Knowing that Ukraine is seeking to retake these territories, Putin could up the ante by immediately bringing them under the Russian nuclear umbrella and responding to any Ukrainian counterattack with the threat of a tactical nuclear strike, Gabuev says. “I think the calculation is that this will be the defining moment where Western leaders will be very careful and the goals will shift from recapturing all the holdings before February 24 to keeping [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky has this moment,” says Gabuev.
The flip side: By declaring a huge chunk of Ukraine part of Russia, Putin would effectively commit to a large, permanent military presence inside Ukraine and risk embarrassment if Ukrainian counterattacks prove successful.
But it could also further his goals of keeping Ukraine divided and weak and driving wedges between Kiev and its Western backers — and between those backers themselves. That’s a bet Putin might be willing to take. “This guy’s risk appetite is very different from Joe Biden’s risk appetite,” Gabuev says.
The threat of annexation comes during a “transitional phase” of the war, says Michael Kofman, a leading expert on Russia’s military at CNA. State of play: Russia has been using its artillery advantage over the past three months to make incremental progress in the Donbass.
CIA Director Bill Burns said Wednesday that perhaps 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed and 45,000 wounded in the war. While Burns says Kiev’s casualties are likely “a little less than that,” they include some of Ukraine’s best-trained troops. But Ukraine is now fighting back with longer-range artillery of its own. The Russian offensive does not appear to be over, says Kofman, but has not brought any clear progress in the past two weeks.
Ukrainian soldiers on patrol in the Donbas region. Photo: Aris Messinas/AFP via Getty “I think they are going to run out of steam,” MI6 director Richard Moore told the Aspen Security Forum on Thursday. “Our assessment is that the Russians will find it increasingly difficult to supply manpower and material in the coming weeks.”
The Ukrainians, meanwhile, are carrying out small-scale counterattacks, including in the city of Kherson. “It clearly looks like a positioning game in order to position themselves for an attack on the line,” says Kofman, noting that Ukrainian forces are doing the same in southern Donbass and Zaporizhia.
What to watch: Ukraine is clearly motivated to make its move before September to try to disrupt any Russian annexation plans.
Russia, meanwhile, appears to be trying to secure the borders of Kherson and other regions it controls without pushing beyond them, Kofman says, possibly setting the stage for annexation. “They would be taking a huge risk trying to annex Kherson because they might lose a big part of it,” he says. Kofman believes the Kremlin may wait until the military outlook in Kherson is clearer before announcing its next moves.
Because the US would not recognize the annexations, the Biden administration’s position on the deployment of US-made weapons – which Kyiv has promised to use only on Ukrainian soil – is unlikely to change.
But if the Kremlin sets new red lines, all sides will have to reassess their own risk calculations. While Zelensky would obviously want to fight with full force, Gabuev says, some European countries could feel differently with nuclear weapons on the table and Putin threatening to cut gas supplies.
Russian annexations would certainly change the diplomatic calculus.
Western officials have expressed hope that their arms shipments will help create a more favorable status quo, allowing Ukraine to negotiate a ceasefire from a position of strength. But Zelensky has vowed not to sign a deal that would cede territory to Russia – let alone nearly a fifth of the country.
Where he stands: Lavrov said Wednesday that now is not the time for peace talks. Whether it ever will, as far as Putin is concerned, remains unclear.
Burns noted that Putin is privately repeating what he has said publicly: “Ukraine is not a real country” and “it is his right, Russia’s right, to dominate Ukraine.”
Bottom line: Attachments could be a step in that direction. But they could also be another bad bet from a Russian leader who has already done a lot in this war.
