Finland is expected to report on its security policy this week, a key step on the path to a nation that may apply to join NATO. The report is expected to launch a debate in the Finnish parliament on whether to seek membership in the alliance – a debate that Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said she hoped would be completed “before mid-summer”. Finnish Foreign Minister Peka Haavisto said on Monday that it was “important” that neighboring Sweden was following a “similar process”, which he expected would take time. “But of course we are constantly exchanging information and, hopefully, if we make similar decisions, we could make them at the same time.” Sweden is holding elections later this year, in which NATO is likely to be a key issue in the election campaign, with the ruling parties not opposed to joining the alliance. Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson did not rule out joining SVT in an interview in late March. Sweden is undertaking a security policy analysis that is due to be completed by the end of May and the government is expected to announce its position following this report, a Swedish official told CNN. They said their nation could make its position public sooner, depending on when neighboring Finland does. Public opinion in both countries has shifted significantly since the invasion, and NATO allies and officials have strongly supported the two countries’ accession. The only serious objection could come from Hungary, whose leader is close to Putin, but NATO officials believe he could shake the hand of Prime Minister Victor Orban. As Putin begins his war by demanding that NATO return its borders to where it was in the 1990s, the fact that this is even considered a diplomatic disaster for Moscow. And if Finland were particularly attached, Putin would suddenly find Russia sharing an additional 830-mile border with NATO. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peshkov warned on Monday that NATO expansion would not bring more stability to Europe. “We have repeatedly said that the alliance itself is more of a tool of confrontation. This is not an alliance that provides peace and stability, and further expansion of the alliance, of course, will not lead to more stability on the European continent.” he said. Rob Bauer, the head of NATO’s military commission, told reporters on Tuesday that the alliance had not ruled out new members, but that it was ultimately up to Finland and Sweden to decide whether to join, Reuters reported. “It is a sovereign decision of any nation that wants to join NATO to apply for membership, something it has not done so far … We are not forcing anyone into NATO,” Bauer said. Nor has Putin’s invasion prompted Ukraine to back down from its desire for closer integration with the West. While the country is unlikely to join NATO, its efforts to join the European Union have accelerated since the start of the war. This will take a long time and could also face fierce opposition from Hungary, which is already in a tough battle with Brussels over rule of law violations, with the EU proposing to suspend central funding in Budapest. However, once again, the fact that there is talk and the level of support among EU leaders and officials is another indication of how united the West has become against Russia. It is worth noting that since the start of the war, the West has remained largely united in its response to Russia, either through economic sanctions or through military support for Ukraine. However, there are some challenges ahead that will test how united this alliance against Russia really is. First, if it turns out that Russia has used chemical weapons in Ukraine, there will be enormous pressure on the West, especially NATO, to play an even more active role in the war – something the alliance has so far been reluctant to do. NATO members have already discussed the red lines and measures to be taken in the event of chemical weapons, but these details remain private to prevent Russia from taking precautionary safeguards. However, any NATO intervention would almost certainly lead to a less stable security situation in Europe, as the West would risk a military confrontation with Russia – a nuclear power that would likely respond by intensifying its attacks on Ukraine and possibly other areas traditional russian influence. Second, the cost-of-living crisis in many European countries could soon test the unity of future Western sanctions on Russia and the embargo on Russian energy. If, after all, the Western European economy is considered more important than holding Russia accountable for the war to its peaceful neighbor, then Putin could to some extent escape by invading an innocent country. But for now, as this unity is largely valid, it is clear that Putin’s desire to underestimate the Western alliance has failed – and that the powerful man has secured a pariah status for his nation, possibly for years to come. Jennifer Hansler contributed to this report from Washington.
