Vladimir Putin, a former chief economic adviser, has suggested that Russia would suspend military operations in Ukraine “within a month or two” if Western countries stopped buying Russian oil and gas. In an interview with the BBC’s Talking Business program on Sunday, Andrei Illarionov, who advised Putin between 2000 and 2005, said the president was probably reassured by the continuing steady flow of energy exports, which allowed him to continue the war. Illarionov said that if Western countries imposed “a real embargo on oil and gas exports from Russia”, then “within a month or two, Russian military operations in Ukraine will probably cease.” He added: “It’s one of the most effective tools that Western countries still have.” Russia’s economy is projected to shrink by up to 15% this year after Western nations imposed sweeping sanctions and companies withdrew from the country after its invasion of Ukraine. Illarionov predicted that Russia would escape complete economic disaster thanks to its export power – especially energy exports. Exports account for more than a quarter of Russia’s economy, with the country being a major exporter of oil, gas, precious metals and grain. The International Energy Agency estimates that Russia accounts for 45% of the European Union’s gas imports, and the bloc says it receives most of its oil from Russia. Illarionov told the BBC: “Every two and a half days, a billion euros go into Putin’s pockets. This is extremely useful for Putin to keep his system running, to continue to fund the war.” Illarionov added: “Once this monetary flow has stopped, Putin will have to reconsider his policies because he will not have many resources to finance further aggression.” EU countries have pledged to wean themselves off Russian energy, and the United States has promised to export more liquefied natural gas to members of the bloc. However, high oil and gas prices mean that Russia’s energy export earnings could increase by more than a third in 2022 compared to 2021, according to Bloomberg Economics.
