Arrest of the Russian Ministry of Defense Ukraine’s Bayraktar TB-2 drones launching tiny guided missiles have wreaked havoc on Russian forces in Ukraine. The Russians also fly unmanned aerial vehicles over Ukraine — and use chalk to kill them. But there is a difference in scale – potentially large. The Ukrainian Air Force and Navy can probably keep the TB-2 in the air around the clock. Russian forces, on the other hand, are “flying minimal outings with Orion drones over Ukraine,” wrote Samuel Bendett, a Russian military expert with the Center for a New American Security in Washington, DC, on Twitter. The proof is in the videos and photos of Russian drones and their victims that have been released on social media in recent weeks. The Kremlin has released several drone video streams depicting successful strikes on Ukrainian vehicles. But only several. Evidence of Ukrainian drone strikes is much more abundant. Analysts at the Oryx blog have documented about 60 deaths from TB-2, but only six from Orions. At the same time, there is photographic evidence that the Ukrainians have shot down at least one of the Russian killing drones. Yes, the Russians have shot down at least three TB-2s, but the Ukrainians can afford to lose more drones. The Turkish-made TB-2 is a 1,400-pound UAV with a propeller, 39-foot wingspan, laser signal sensor antimatter and lower pylons for 14-pound MAM missiles. Guided by satellite or radio optical contact, a TB-2 can patrol for 24 hours, monitoring enemy forces, setting targets for laser-guided artillery missiles and tanks, and other vehicles with its own ammunition. The nearest Russian analogue is the Kronstadt Orion. Fifty feet from end to end of the wing, the one-tonne propeller Orion has about the same sensors as the TAM-2 and Kornet guided missiles that are similar to MAMs, but the first generation drone lacks satellite communications. This means that a first generation Orion can not be more than a few hundred miles away from its pilots. The newer Orions have SATCOM, but it is not clear that Kronstadt has yet to deliver any of these upgraded aircraft. Possible range restrictions did not prevent the Russians from developing the Orions in Ukraine. The videos confirm that Orions hit at least three Ukrainian vehicles in separate attacks starting in mid-March. And then the Ukrainians responded. On Friday, photos appeared on social media that clearly depict the wreckage of an Orion. The loss of even one of the drones is “significant”, according to Bendett, as before that loss the entire Russian Orion fleet numbered only about 30 aircraft. It is true that Ukraine had only 20 TB-2s that entered the current war. However, Kyiv continued to receive fresh aircraft – and Bayraktar has no problem maintaining production. In contrast, Kronstadt could have difficulty meeting Russian demand for new Orions due to Russia’s long-standing supply of high-tech components. The new Western sanctions are likely to only deepen the shortcomings. So yes, there are unique and competitive drone campaigns being played in the skies over Ukraine. But Kyiv is viable. Russia … not so much. Follow me on twitter. Check out my website or some of my other work here. Send me a safe tip.
