Why it matters: Fears of the wrath of a nuclear-armed Vladimir Putin or the undermining of peace talks with the Russian president have faded. Most NATO allies are now giving Ukraine what it needs to prevail in Act Two: a bloody, protracted battle expected in the eastern Donbass region.
World War III firebags have largely fallen – they do not provide the air and ground forces that President Biden has pledged not to send. In military language, it is called “mission herpes”.
The big picture: The Biden government was careful at the beginning of the conflict to differentiate between what it called “offensive” and “defensive” weapons, fearing that it might become a “competitor” under international law.
On Sunday, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan suggested that the framework no longer apply because of the “nature of the war” and the “war crimes” committed by Russian forces. “[W]have reached a place in the United States and many members of the NATO alliance, where the key question is: “What does Ukraine need and how can we provide it?” said Sullivan on NBC Press’ “Meet the” show. “ The Washington Post reported Tuesday that the government is considering additional $ 750 million in aid, including Mi-17 helicopters that could be easily flown by Ukrainians.
Looking back: During the first week of the invasion, neither the White House, the State Department, nor the Pentagon confirmed that the United States was sending Stinger anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine.
Today, Western-supplied Stingers are the bread and butter of the Ukrainian resistance – and among the less controversial weapons in a lengthy military aid newsletter that was proudly blown up by the Pentagon press team last week. All US military aid, up to 50 million bullets, was being analyzed, Axios said on Thursday. “We helped them get drones from other countries,” NSC spokesman Matt Miller told CNN on Tuesday afternoon.
There was also a discussion in the first weeks of the war about the kinds of information the US should share with Ukraine. MP Adam Smith (D-Wash.), Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, said in early March that the United States had not provided Ukraine with “real-time targeting” information.
During a hearing last week, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said for the first time that the Pentagon was exchanging information to help Ukraine conduct offensive operations in the Russian-occupied Donbas. When Republican senators complained Monday that this was not enough, a U.S. official responded publicly: “The U.S. is providing detailed, timely information to Ukrainians on a number of fronts.”
Turning is not limited to the US The German government was mocked for sending 5,000 helmets to Ukraine in February. It is now considering joining NATO allies to supply “heavy weapons” in anticipation of the next phase of the war.
The Czech Republic became the first NATO country to send tanks to Ukraine last week, while Slovakia complied with a long-standing request from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to deploy an S-300 air defense system. Slovakia also revived a proposal this week to send Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine.
Between the lines: Even the fact that Ukrainian forces may need training in the use of new weapons systems does not prevent their surrender.
The directive on the use of more sophisticated systems, such as US-supplied Switchblade drones, “is not prohibitive in our decisions,” a senior US defense official told reporters on Tuesday.