The World Bank has issued dire predictions for both Ukraine and Russia this year as a result of the war, warning that the outlook could become even more bleak if the conflict continues. Ukraine’s economy will collapse by 45.1% this year, the bank predicted, much worse than the 10% to 35% recession forecast by the IMF last month. Russia’s GDP is expected to fall by 11.2%. In a more pessimistic scenario, which reflects an escalation of the conflict, there would be a greater negative impact on the euro area, increased Western sanctions and economic shock due to the erosion of confidence. The region’s economy will shrink by almost 9% – worse than the 2008 global financial crisis – with a 20% drop for Russia and a 75% collapse for Ukraine, the report said.
5 things to start your day with
- Up to 40,000 civil servants are facing the ax: The number of civil servants has grown by more than a fifth to 485,000 in the last seven years in response to Covid and Brexit
- Russians cut spending as sanctions hit the economy: Spending cuts by 10% as economists expect Russia to be hit by a two-year deep recession
- Airlines prepare for 100 100m from Easter travel mess: Further flight cancellations are expected next week as the Easter travel mess continues
- Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Marine Le Pen’s National Socialism is a powerful political product: Emmanuel Macron’s opponent’s economic agenda is a celebration of the welfare state and the French social model
- Twitter needs to be weaned from ads, says Elon Musk: Larger shareholder calls for price cuts and improvements to Twitter’s paid subscription service
What happened overnight
Asian stocks fell on Monday, while the euro rose by a fraction as the far right lost the first round of the French presidential election. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.6% after falling 2.6% last week, while Chinese blue chips lost 1.8%.
He is coming today
Company: Sirius Real Estate (transaction statement) Economic: GDP (UK), industrial production (UK), manufacturing (UK), consumer price index (China)
