Despite the thousands of miles separating it from the battlefields of Ukraine, Kariuki and her cabbage, corn and spinach farm are indirect victims of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion.  The war raised the price of natural gas, a key component of fertilizers, and led to severe sanctions against Russia, a major fertilizer exporter.
Kariuki spent 20,000 Kenyan shillings, or about US $ 175, to fertilize her entire farm.  Now, he would have to spend five times as much.  To continue working the land, he said, would have only losses.
“I can not continue with the agricultural business. I am stopping agriculture to try something else,” he said.
Higher fertilizer prices make the world’s food more expensive and less abundant, as farmers skimp on nutrients for their crops and have lower yields.  While the ripples will be felt by grocery shoppers in rich countries, the pressure on food supplies will fall more on families in poorer countries.  It could hardly have come at a worse time: The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said last week that the global food price index in March was at its highest level since it began in 1990.
The fertilizer crisis threatens to further curtail food supplies around the world, which are already being curtailed by the cessation of critical grain shipments from Ukraine and Russia.  The loss of these affordable stocks of wheat, barley and other grains raises the prospect of food shortages and political instability in the Middle East, Africa and some Asian countries where millions rely on subsidized bread and cheap pasta.
“Food prices will skyrocket because farmers will have to make a profit, so what about consumers?”  said Uche Anyanwu, an agricultural specialist at the University of Nigeria.
Action Aid warns that families in the Horn of Africa are already on the brink of survival.
The UN says Russia is the world’s No. 1 exporter of nitrogen fertilizers and No. 2 in phosphorus and potassium fertilizers.  Belarus’s ally, which also faces Western sanctions, is another major fertilizer producer.
Many developing countries – including Mongolia, Honduras, Cameroon, Ghana, Senegal, Mexico and Guatemala – rely on Russia for at least a fifth of their imports.
The conflict has also raised the already exorbitant price of natural gas used to make nitrogen fertilizers.  The result: European energy prices are so high that some fertilizer companies have “closed their businesses and shut down their factories,” said David Laborde, a researcher at the International Food Policy Research Institute.
For corn and cabbage farmer Jackson Koeth, 55, of Eldoret in western Kenya, the conflict in Ukraine was far-reaching and confusing until he had to decide whether to continue the planting season.  Fertilizer prices had doubled since last year.
Koeth said he decided to continue planting but only halfway through the previous years.  However, he doubts that he can make a profit with such an expensive fertilizer.
Greek farmer Dimitris Filis, who grows olives, oranges and lemons, said “you have to look to find” ammonia nitrate and that the cost of fertilizing a 10-hectare (25-acre) olive grove has doubled to 560 euros ($ 310).  While selling his produce at an agricultural market in Athens, he said most farmers plan to skip the fertilization of their olives and oranges this year.
“Many people will not use fertilizers at all, resulting in reduced production quality and production itself, and little by little, at one point, they will not be able to cultivate their land because there will be no income,” he said. Philis.
In China, the price of potash – a salt rich in potassium used as a fertilizer – has risen by 86% over the previous year.  Nitrogen fertilizer prices increased by 39% and phosphorus fertilizers increased by 10%.
In the eastern Chinese city of Tai’an, the director of a 35-year-old wheat and corn family cooperative said fertilizer prices had risen 40 percent since the beginning of the year.
“We can hardly make money,” said the manager, who would only give his last name, Zao.
Terry Farms, which grows crops heavily in 2,100 acres in Ventura, California, has seen the prices of some fertilizer formulations double.  others increased by 20%.  Changing fertilizers is dangerous, said Vice President William Terry, because cheaper versions may not provide “what the crop needs as a food source.”
As the growing season approaches in Maine, potato farmers are struggling with a 70% to 100% increase in fertilizer prices from last year, depending on the mix.
“I think it’s going to be a pretty expensive crop, no matter what you put in the soil, from compost to fuel, labor, electricity and whatever,” said Donald Flannery, executive director of the Maine Potato Board.
In Prudentopolis, a city in the Brazilian state of Parana, farmer Edimilson Rickli showed a warehouse that would normally be full of fertilizer bags, but only has enough to last a few more weeks.  He is concerned that, as the war in Ukraine shows no signs of abandonment, he should be left without fertilizer when he plants wheat, barley and oats next month.
“The question is: Where will Brazil buy more fertilizers?”  he said.  “We have to find other markets.”
Other countries hope to help fill the gaps.  Nigeria, for example, opened Africa’s largest fertilizer plant last month, and the $ 2.5 billion plant has already shipped fertilizer to the United States, Brazil, India and Mexico.
India, meanwhile, is seeking more fertilizer imports from Israel, Oman, Canada and Saudi Arabia to make up for lost shipments from Russia and Belarus.
“If supply shortages worsen, we will produce less,” said Kishor Rungta of the non-profit Fertilizer Association of India.  “That’s why we have to look for options to get more fertilizer in the country.”
Agricultural businesses provide support to farmers, especially in Africa where poverty often restricts access to vital agricultural inputs.  In Kenya, Apollo Agriculture helps farmers gain fertilizer and access to finance.
“Some farmers skip the planting season and others get into other ventures, such as buying kids to make ends meet,” said Benjamin Njenga, co-founder of the company.  “So these support services go a long way.”
Governments also help.  The US Department of Agriculture announced last month that it was providing $ 250 million in grants to support US fertilizer production.  The Swiss government has released some of its stocks of nitrogen fertilizers.
However, there is no easy answer to the double collision of higher fertilizer prices and limited supplies.  The next 12 to 18 months, food researcher LaBorde said, “will be difficult.”
The market was already “super, extremely tight” before the war, said Kathy Mathers of the Fertilizer Institute.
“Unfortunately, in many cases, growers are happy to get no fertilizer,” he said.
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Asadu reported from Lagos, Nigeria and Wiseman from Washington.  Contributed to this story by: Tatiana Pollastri in Sao Paulo, Brazil.  Debora Alvares in Brasilia, Brazil.  Sheikh Saaliq in New Delhi.  Lefteris Pitarakis in Athens.  Jamey Keaten in Geneva.  Joe McDonald and Yu Bing in Beijing.  Lisa Rathke in Marshfield, Vermont.  Dave Kolpack in Fargo, North Dakota.  Kathia Martinez in Panama City.  Christoph Noelting in Frankfurt.  Fabiola Sanchez in Mexico City.  Veselin Toshkov in Sofia, Bulgaria.  Tarik El-Barakah in Rabat, Morocco.  Tassanee Vejpongsa and Elaine Kurtenbach in Bangkok.  Ilan Ben Zion in Jerusalem.  Eddie Lederer at the United Nations.  and Aya Batrawy in Dubai
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