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Marc Champion, Natalia Drozdiak and John Follain, Bloomberg News
Date of publication:
08 Apr 2022 • 8 hours ago • 5 minutes reading • 56 Comments Pro-Russian troops are seen over armored vehicles in Dokuchaievsk, Donetsk region, Ukraine, March 28, 2022. Photo by REUTERS / Alexander Ermochenko
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As Russia re-focuses its invasion of Ukraine to the east, recognition is growing in Kyiv and the allied capitals that the window to prevent the nation from splitting and a long war of attrition may be narrow.
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The recent withdrawal of Russian troops from around Kyiv represents a defeat, as the Ukrainian army halted its advance with a combination of civil war and attacks on supply lines. However, to retreat, or even limit an overwhelming advance from reinforced Russian units in the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, would mean that we must begin the battle to open battlefields, which require more than light anti-tank and anti-aircraft gunships. missiles that the US and Europe have. has been provided so far. “Planes, coast-to-air missiles, armored personnel carriers, heavy air defense systems,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba said ahead of a meeting with his North Atlantic Treaty Organization counterparts in Brussels on Thursday.
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Speaking after the meeting, he predicted that the upcoming battle for the east would be reminiscent of World War II, which included large-scale operations and thousands of tanks and artillery. “Either you help us now – and I’m talking for days not weeks – or your help will come too late and many people will die,” Kuleba said. He did not doubt that Ukraine would receive the weapons it needed, he said, but “the question is the timetable.” The Daily Telegraph reported that President Vladimir Putin was pushing his generals to achieve a major victory before May 9 to offset their defeat in Kyiv, Western officials said. May 9 is the day Russia traditionally celebrates the end of World War II with a military parade in Red Square. Putin has elevated the “Great Patriotic War” to the status of a national founding myth and has justified the invasion of Ukraine as a repeat of the struggle against Nazism. Russian troops entered the battlefield at the beginning of the invasion wearing the black and orange ribbon of St. George that his government encourages people to wear to celebrate the holiday.
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However, Western intelligence agencies believe that the losses in the month-long battle in Kiev, from which Russia withdrew this week, mean that commanders may find it difficult to build up the forces needed to meet the Kremlin’s demands. “We believe that May 9 is an important date,” said a Western official. “Given the focus on what President Putin would call the ‘special military operation’, one can only imagine that there would be a desire to have a declared success by that time.” Ukrainian soldiers fire an artillery shell at the positions of the armed forces of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic near Novoluhanske in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, January 11, 2018. Photo by REUTERS / Maksim Levin Six weeks after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of neighboring Ukraine, the war is entering a new phase, a phase that could allow Ukraine to acquire and develop these weapons in just a few weeks. It is so likely that Russia will need to redeploy units for a major offensive in the east, adding which areas of the Donbass region remain in Ukrainian hands over an area of territory it already occupies. With this result, Russian forces could engage in a long and destabilizing war to force a possible settlement, imposing a heavy price on Ukraine, as well as great costs for the European economy and for Russia itself.
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“The Allies need to do more and are ready to do more to provide more equipment, and they recognize and recognize the urgency,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said after Thursday’s meeting. “This war can last for weeks, but also months and possibly years.” The question of whether the war in Ukraine could end quickly or escalate into a multi-year conflict such as in Syria – which has been going on since 2011 – is now considered central, according to a Western official familiar with the talks between NATO allies. The revelation of alleged Russian war crimes against civilians in recaptured cities has given new impetus to US, UK and European Union sanctions against Russia. The EU agreed on Thursday to ban Russian coal imports, and talks on a possible oil and gas embargo are likely to follow.
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“Sanctions have not had a significant impact on Putin’s invasion plans to date, so the focus is shifting to weapons capable of balancing the ground,” he said. conflict. ” Heappey had just hosted a group of senior Ukrainian officers, led by Deputy Defense Minister Volodymyr Havrylov, to demonstrate “a range of equipment and options for further military support, including missile defense systems and missile defense equipment.” NATO has refused to send troops to Ukraine or supply it with aircraft, citing the risk of sparking a wider conflict with Russia. Nor will it impose a no-fly zone, as has been repeatedly demanded by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
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The initial reluctance of NATO allies to send larger offensive weapons for the same reasons is receding, albeit very slowly from Ukraine’s point of view. Kuleba singled out Germany, welcoming Berlin’s seismic shift in arms supplies, but criticizing its slow pace. “While Berlin has time, Kyiv does not,” he said. Germany had offered Ukraine 100 Marder tanks, but that deal now looks dubious as they stand out in the rain for so long that it would take months of repair, according to a German official. The United Kingdom has already said it is adding its Starstreak anti-aircraft system to the 3,615 light anti-tank weapons known as NLAWs it has sent to Ukraine. The Times of London reported this week that the United Kingdom was also deciding to send between two models of armored patrol vehicles – the Mastiff and the Jackal.
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Australia said on April 1 that it would deliver Bushmaster’s armored personnel carriers to Ukraine after Zelensky specifically requested them. The same day, the United States said it would help countries with Soviet-designated tanks known to the Ukrainian military transport them to Kyiv. Chariots, Drones The Czech Republic’s state broadcaster showed video this week of five T-72 tanks and five armored vehicles loaded onto a train, saying it was a delivery to Ukraine agreed with NATO allies. Defense Minister Jana Černochová confirmed in a tweet that the Czechs were making deliveries, but said she would not help Russia identify them. Washington is also sending switched Switchblade drones to Ukraine, as well as new supplies of Javelin anti-tank missiles for use on the eastern front as soon as the expected Russian offensive begins, according to US officials.
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The quantities of heavy armor are currently small and some equipment requires months of training to operate. It is unclear whether they can develop enough on the Donbas front in time to withstand the expected Russian attack. The high-intensity conflict is rapidly passing through ammunition and equipment, and Ukrainian forces will face their own logistical challenges as Russia targets fuel and ammunition depots in long-range missile strikes. Much will also depend on Russia’s ability to regroup and assemble forces that have defeated the North. To succeed, Ukraine will need not only tanks, but also good intelligence, more than the advanced light weapons it has used for this purpose, and ample ground forces to prevent encirclement behind its front-line forces, the Mark Hertling, the former commander of the US Army in Europe, said in a thread on Twitter. “Donbass will be a battle of attrition,” he said.
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