Britain is experiencing a moment of ignition at the moment. Welcome to what many have already dubbed the “hot strike summer.” Clearly, what happens to our pay packages is a big part of the story. If you take inflation into account, wages are set to shrink by £1,750 over the next two years. The only group of workers whose wages rise in line with prices are those earning over £170,000 a year. But that is not all. For the first time since records began, the shrinking labor force means there are more job vacancies than there are unemployed. In an attempt to attract people into unfilled roles, some employers have tried to impose compulsory overtime on their existing staff – this was one of the contentious issues in the Caterpillar strike in Northern Ireland. Then there is the pandemic. While disrupting and reorganizing our work patterns, Covid-19 also laid the foundation for today’s unpredictable surge in worker confidence. Pandemic firefights and regular rehiring and school reopenings have provided workers with an opportunity to flex their muscles and build their collective confidence. A key leverage point in many of the disputes we see now – the Communication Workers Union action against Royal Mail and BT Group, the RMT action against Network Rail or the number of actions by outsourced cleaners and hospital porters – is “key worker” concept. In the face of excessive working hours, pandemic work pressures and rapidly eroding workplace conditions, those deemed “essential” were repeatedly told they deserved better. But as CWU deputy general secretary Terry Pullinger said recently: “We’re not getting what we deserve. We get what we bargain for.” Industrial activity is now at its highest level in five years, although the average over the last few decades is low in historical terms. RMT industrial action in June was the biggest on the rail network for more than 30 years. The CWU secured a 97.6% vote in a 77% strike against Royal Mail, making it the biggest strike mandate since the implementation of the Trade Unions Act 2016. In the 10 months since her election as Unite general secretary, Sharon Graham has overseen 63,000 Unite members entering into dispute. If workers are forced to “pay the price for inflation”, he has warned there could be hundreds more strikes. At present, industrial action is largely concentrated in the public sector. This is partly due to a divergence in average pay growth, which this year stands at 7.2% for the private sector and only 1.5% in the public sector. It is also due to a gap in membership: the most recent figures show that while 51.9% of public sector workers belonged to a union, only 12.9% of private sector workers belonged to a union. But it has the effect of giving strikes a distinctly political dimension, since public sector pay is ultimately determined by elected representatives. Add to this the way unions have introduced analysis and ideas into the public debate that Labor has largely shied away from – think demands for profit cuts to tackle inflation, rather than wage suppression – and you can see why even relatively small Strike actions can have a big impact. But those who get excited about the current moment should be careful. Where strike action exists in the private sector, it has not made much headway beyond formerly nationalized industries – for example, British Airways or the railways. And, as feelings of injustice swell into feelings of militancy, it is far from clear that the unions are in a position to make them happen. In June, as the RMT defiantly took strike action in response to Network Rail’s 2% pay rise, supermarket workers’ union Usdaw saw a negotiated 2% pay rise for Morrisons workers as a victory. When the pay deal – which one trade unionist called the “highest basic rate of pay in the supermarket sector” – was put to a ballot by Morrisons Usdaw members, they voted for it. What we are dealing with now, in the words of US labor scholar Kim Moody, are “opportunities, not certainties”. While this year’s conflicts so far are dramatic and important, they are also defensive: the fight is largely to prevent conditions from worsening, even if the rhetoric is more ambitious. The sudden arrival of labor-friendly economic conditions – high inflation, a tight labor market and supply chain disruptions – can also bring the risk of complacency. There is much promise in the increased willingness of both class and leaders to act, but circumstances, which may fluctuate, do not guarantee success. As Hobsbawm noted, there is a difference between the accumulation of flammable materials and their ignition. But when employees see each other fight back, sparks can start to fly. Polly Smythe is the labor movement correspondent for Novara Media
