This is a very strong storm. Tornadoes hit Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas on Monday night. The storm will continue to be strong until Wednesday night as it moves in Michigan. Fortunately for Michigan, we should not be in the area of the storm with the highest probability of severe weather and severe weather. The Storm Forecast Center forecasts this morning put Michigan in the likelihood of tornadoes, catastrophic gusts of wind and heavy to very heavy hail. In fact, changing the forecast from late yesterday to early this morning is an increased chance of severe weather, including tornadoes. Following is the evolution of the forecasts for intense weather phenomena from today until early Wednesday and from Wednesday to early Thursday. Just below is the general forecast for severe weather for 8 a.m. Tuesday through 8 a.m. Wednesday. Severe weather forecast for Tuesday is expected to continue west of Michigan. General bad weather forecast for today, April 12, until very early Wednesday. Unstable weather is expected from Iowa to Texas. The following forecast concerns the possibility of tornadoes today. The highest potential for strong tornadoes on Tuesday is in Iowa, in the black hatched region. Tornado forecast at a probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point. The forecast is for 8 a.m. Tuesday through 8 a.m. Wednesday. The storm system then moves to Michigan on Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday night. The probability of severe weather, which includes all forms of severe weather, is tied at 15% in the southwestern quarter of Lower Michigan on Wednesday. There is a better way to look at the wording of the Storm Prediction Center forecast. Instead of the misunderstood marginal, light, enhanced, moderate and high, think of it as five levels in the weather forecast. Southwest Michigan is at level two threat on Wednesday. Overall weather forecast for 8 p.m. Wednesday, April 13 until 8 a.m. Thursday 14 April. Most of the severe weather is expected to remain just south of Michigan. Michigan has a “slight” risk of bad weather late Wednesday. I think it’s better to show you the probability of severe weather or tornadoes, instead of using the general wording. The small risk probably does not make much sense to you. The following is the forecast of the possibility of a tornado just below. Tornado forecast from 8 a.m. Wednesday to 8 a.m. Thursday. The southwest corner of Michigan has a 5% chance of a tornado 25 miles from any given point. Much of Lower Michigan also has a 2% chance of a tornado on Wednesday. This is definitely a serious weather situation that we must continue to monitor for tomorrow. Today, we do not need to take safety precautions. But I will let you know here about any changes or changes in the chances of strong thunderstorms and tornadoes for Wednesday, April 13th.
