The two-child policy – which limits the payment of benefits to the first two children born to the poorest households – would reduce, advocates say, the welfare bill and bring in “helpless” parents – as one minister put it – teaching them the “reality that children cost”. However, new research shows that the policy behavior change aspect has failed tragically. Since its introduction exactly five years ago today, the fertility rate for third and subsequent children born to poorer families has almost dropped. Instead, the main impact of the policy was to become the biggest single factor in child poverty. “In the absence of a behavioral response to fertility in politics, the main function of the two-child limit is to deprive low-income families of around 000 3,000 a year. “This will inevitably lead to dramatic increases in child poverty among older families,” said Professor Jonathan Portes, co-author of the study. The analysis of birth records and household survey data for the study, commissioned by the Nuffield Foundation, found that the introduction of the policy in 2017 led to a reduction in third-child births by just 5,600 per year – less than 1% of the total annual births in England. and Wales. The study speculates why politics had such a small impact on behavior. An unpublished survey shows that more than half of families were unaware of politics before being affected. Many large families – Orthodox Jewish and Muslim families are disproportionately affected – may ignore it for religious reasons. The survey comes as new estimates show that 1.4 million children in more than 400,000 households in the UK are affected by the two-child policy. The rise in benefits under inflation in April means that affected families with three children face a deficit of 3 983 a month in benefits, with larger families facing an even bigger income hole. Sara Ogilvie of the Child Poverty Action Group (CPAG), which produced the estimates, said: “Limiting two children is a brutal policy that punishes children simply because they have siblings. “It forces families to survive on less than they need, and with the rising cost of living, the difficulties and hunger these families face will intensify.” More than 50% of children in families with more than two children will be in poverty by 2027, according to the CPAG. The abolition of the policy would immediately lift 250,000 children out of poverty. Despite the ministers’ rhetoric about the “harmless claimants”, official figures show that more than half of the affected families are working. The two-child policy was the brainchild of former Chancellor George Osborne, who announced it in 2015 in a context of right-wing media hysteria surrounding large families – “parental benefits” who claimed to have had children primarily to exploit what was considered finished. – generous welfare system. He immediately faced problems after critics stressed that women who gave birth to a third or subsequent child as a result of rape would be punished according to the policy. Exceptions were introduced for this and for cases of multiple births or where families had adopted children or had foster care arrangements. There is evidence that politics for two children has been a major factor in many women’s decisions to have an abortion. Research has shown that it has had a devastating impact on family life, even before the current cost of living crisis, with households being forced to cut back on food and heating. It was recently destroyed by former Tory Social Reform Minister Lord Freud, who called it “bad” and “excessive” and said it should be abolished. He claimed that the policy was imposed on a reluctant Ministry of Labor and Pensions (DWP) by the Ministry of Finance as the price of universal credit. A DWP spokesman said: “Universal credit enables people to support themselves and their families while building financial independence through work, and the latest figures show that there were 200,000 fewer children in absolute poverty after the cost of housing. compared to 2019/20. “This policy means that families with benefits are required to make the same financial decisions as families supported solely through work, including the total childcare offer for working parents and the child benefit for all children.”
