Land war analyst Nick Reynolds, who works for the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank, adds what the coming weeks of the war in Ukraine might be like. Was the Ukrainian Foreign Minister accurate when he said that the battles in Donbas could be reminiscent of World War II? “Yes, I think it’s expensive,” Reynolds said. “With all the forces that have been liberated from the north of Ukraine … we will see an armed conflict on European soil that has not been observed for generations.” Could Ukraine really get back territories? There are many unknown factors here, says Reynolds. Many Ukrainians will be excited about the withdrawal of Russian forces to the north, but in the south and east “the map is slowly turning red,” he says, and that is even before any reinforcements from the north arrive. So Russia certainly still has some forward momentum in the south and east, he says. How much difference could Western weapons make? The weapons that Western countries have sent to Ukraine so far are changing the game, but NATO has delivered “a significant amount of its reserves – and that offer was finite,” Reynolds said. Western weapons will be “absolutely necessary” in the coming weeks, but it is difficult to know how they can get them where they need to be, he added. Increasing industrial production of sophisticated weapons such as Javelins, NLAWs and Stingers is not easy, he says, as they have complex supply chains, he believes Western governments are struggling to keep up with demand. Switchblade drones could “start to change things on the ground in a short time” – but there are “very few others” who could do it, he adds.
