There is no evidence that Putin has decided to intervene in the upcoming elections or that he has preferred candidates, the sources said. Attempts to hack into voting infrastructure would also not be easy, because voting systems in the US are so pervasive and decentralized. However, in the past Putin has been less willing to try to intervene directly in state electoral systems – choosing instead to order scanner voter registration scans and campaign for influence to cast doubt on the legitimacy of official elections. believe that Putin may now be more willing to go further than in previous intervention efforts. “As we put pressure and as Ukraine puts pressure, it will certainly expand the options it will consider,” said a source who was briefed on the intelligence community’s assessments. “So what could he do? I do not think there was any real conclusion to that. Just a view of a wide range of things.” Another source familiar with the matter said that one of the options could be a “direct attack on the electoral infrastructure”, reflecting “a change in Putin’s tolerance of danger, as we saw with his invasion of Ukraine”.
A U.S. official made it clear that the estimates were not based on direct information. “We have no direct information that Russia is seeking to target state, local or electoral systems more directly than before, but we are certainly looking forward to it. We will continue to actively share any information about increased threats with state and local officials such as we receive, “the official told CNN.

Putin is more willing to take risks

The intelligence community has made understanding Putin’s mentality a priority since the invasion, sources familiar with the matter told CNN. Raw estimates point to his increasingly unpredictable behavior, and US officials say Putin is more willing to consider taking risks out of anger over Russia’s failures in Ukraine – something his advisers did. who say they did not tell him the whole truth. do not prepare him for. The Associated Press reported Saturday that Putin could use US support for Ukraine as a pretext to intervene in the US election. Lawmakers were briefed by intelligence officials last week on Putin’s calculations of possible influence, according to another US official familiar with the matter. The report acknowledged that if Putin turned his attention to causing harm outside of Ukraine, the US midterm elections this year could be a possible target for Russian agents, according to the US official. Russian actors also tried to influence the 2016 and 2020 elections. The source did not suggest that there was any specific information that the Kremlin would target the US election, according to the official, but rather that the election is one of the many areas where the Russian government could target influential companies in response. in the war in Ukraine. “If Putin feels back in a corner, he can turn his forces in cyberspace in any direction,” he said, adding that officials were on high alert for the US midterm elections this year. While it would be difficult for Russia to violate the voter turnout, another source noted that Russia would not have to change many, if any, votes “to call into question the security of the entire voting campaign.” Even if Russian hacking efforts did not affect the outcome at all, sowing chaos and mistrust in the electoral system could be enough for a victory, another source said.
When asked about the estimates, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment. “Our Electoral Threat Officer continues to lead the Information Community’s efforts against external threats in the US election,” ODNI spokeswoman Nicole de Hai told CNN. Elections are not the only goal Russia could have in mind. The U.S. government has begun to warn of the possibility of Russia trying to attack vital U.S. infrastructure, urging private sector owners and operators to be prepared. “All businesses, all critical infrastructure owners and operators need to assume that cyber-disruptive activity is something the Russians are thinking about, preparing for and exploring options,” Jen said. Easterly, Director of American Cybersecurity. and the Infrastructure Security Service, he told CNN late last month.