William Burns, in a rare public appearance, also said Russia’s leader would be proven wrong to believe he could win a bloody war of attrition against Ukraine – just as he had previously been proven wrong to assume his forces could take the Kyiv during the first days of the invasion. Covering a range of topics at a security forum in Aspen, Colorado, the spy chief spoke about China, warning that the risk of Chinese forces invading Taiwan will increase this decade. He said Chinese President Xi Jinping’s determination to assert control over the territory should not be underestimated. Burns was asked if he thought Putin was unstable and unhealthy. “As far as we can tell he’s probably very healthy,” Burns said, before quipping that this was an “informal intelligence crisis.” The CIA chief, also a former US ambassador to Moscow, has been watching and dealing with Putin for more than two decades. He said the president believed it was his destiny to restore Russia as a great power. Key to this was control of Ukraine. Offering the US intelligence community’s latest estimate of the death toll from the Russian invasion, which is nearing the end of its fifth month, Mr. Burns said it stood at about 15,000 Russian dead and about three times that number wounded. He said Ukraine’s tally was also steep – “probably a little less” than the Russian figures. Image: CIA Director William Burns meets US President Joe Biden earlier this month. Photo: AP Read more: Russia ‘laying the groundwork’ to annex territories under its control The CIA director predicted that the Kremlin would continue with a war of attrition in the belief that the West’s willingness to support Ukraine would wane. However, he said Putin had miscalculated with his initial invasion plans, failing to take Kyiv in a bolt of lightning, and would be proven wrong again. “He insists that Ukraine is not a real country, but real countries are fighting back.” Answering questions from NBC’s chief foreign affairs correspondent Andrea Mitchell at the annual Aspen Security Forum, Mr. Burns spoke about another big challenge – China, and in particular the fate of Taiwan. President Joe Biden is expected to speak with his Chinese counterpart in the coming days at a time of tensions between the world’s most powerful nations, particularly over the fate of democratically-ruled Taiwan. The US leader said America would intervene militarily if China attacked Taiwan. Use Chrome browser for more accessible video player 0:47 Putin visits Iran to deepen ties Mr Burns said such a commitment was important given the “complex and dangerous rivalries”. “I would not underestimate President Xi’s determination to assert PRC control over Taiwan,” the CIA chief said. “I think he is determined that his military has the ability to take such an action if it decides to move in that direction [in terms of using military force]. “I think the risk for that becomes greater, it seems to us, the further you go into this decade.” Read more: China is biggest ‘game-changing challenge’, MI5 and FBI chiefs warn Mr. Burns said China’s political and military leaders seemed “somewhat concerned” about how Russia’s offensive in Ukraine was developing, especially in the first few weeks. This is due to Russia’s faltering military performance, the war’s impact on the global economy and how Putin’s actions have drawn European allies closer to the US. At the same time, China is trying to learn from Russia’s invasion regarding its plans for Taiwan. “I think our feeling is that [the lessons from Russia’s war] probably affects less the question of whether the Chinese leadership might choose violence to control Taiwan, but how and when they would do so,” the CIA director said. As for the lessons, Mr Burns said: “I suspect the lesson the Chinese leadership and the military are learning is that you have to get massive overwhelming power.” Beijing would also have to shape global opinion in favor of any attack, protect its economy from the effects of sanctions, and try to break up relations between the US and countries in the Indo-Pacific region.
